ANC Faces Uncertain Future Amid Declining Support

Key Takeaways:

• The African National Congress (ANC) acknowledges its decline, which began in 2016, and attributes it to various factors, including the loss of major metros and the emergence of hung councils.
• The party’s secretary-general, Fikile Mbalula, notes that the ANC can no longer command support and must compete for it, negotiating with other parties that claim to represent the same constituencies.
• The ANC’s decline is attributed to the rise of breakaway parties, such as the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and the uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) party, which have attracted traditional ANC supporters.
• The party’s mid-term report highlights the need for renewal, governance reform, and mass work to restore the ANC’s hegemony.
• The Government of National Unity (GNU) is seen as a strategic setback, but the ANC retains significant influence, controlling two-thirds of the ministries critical to transformation and development.

Introduction to the ANC’s Mid-Term Report
The African National Congress (ANC) recently held its 5th National General Council (NGC) in Boksburg, where secretary-general Fikile Mbalula presented the party’s mid-term report. The report acknowledges the ANC’s decline, which began in 2016, and attributes it to various factors, including the loss of major metros and the emergence of hung councils. Mbalula notes that the decline is not a sudden rupture, but rather a long-standing issue that requires urgent attention. The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the party’s current state, highlighting the need for renewal, governance reform, and mass work to restore the ANC’s hegemony.

The ANC’s Decline and the Rise of Breakaway Parties
The ANC’s decline is attributed to the rise of breakaway parties, such as the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and the uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) party, which have attracted traditional ANC supporters. The report notes that the ANC can no longer command support and must compete for it, negotiating with other parties that claim to represent the same constituencies. This shift in the political landscape has resulted in the ANC losing its outright majority in Parliament, Gauteng, and KZN. The report warns that the party must adapt to this new reality and develop strategies to win back its traditional supporters.

The Government of National Unity (GNU) and the ANC’s Influence
The Government of National Unity (GNU) is seen as a strategic setback, but the ANC retains significant influence, controlling two-thirds of the ministries critical to transformation and development. Mbalula notes that the GNU has faced repeated crises, particularly over ideological and policy differences, but the ANC’s participation in the government has helped to mitigate these challenges. The report highlights the need for the ANC to leverage its influence within the GNU to drive transformation and development, while also addressing the weaknesses in the government that threaten its stability and credibility.

The State of ANC Branches and Membership
The ANC’s analysis of the state of its branches and why members leave the organisation provides a sobering view. The report notes that the bulk of the party’s branches are rural, with suburban branches trailing behind, and informal settlement branches providing the lowest response rate. The age profile of members reflects another long-term challenge the party has been struggling with, with the average branch chairperson being 49.3 years old, and a limited number of young cadres holding chair positions. Membership stability is patchy, with youth membership remaining far lower than adult membership, and branches citing factionalism, poor internal communication, and irregular meetings as reasons for members leaving.

The 2026 Local Government Elections and the ANC’s Strategy
As the country prepares for the 2026 elections, the ANC said its deployees ought to play the strategic role required to transform South Africa. The report emphasizes the need for ANC-governed municipalities to demonstrate progress in implementing the Spatial Development Framework, ensuring that all rural and urban areas possess reliable infrastructure, thriving local economies, sustainable livelihoods, affordable quality services, and shared prosperity. The ANC must take tough decisions regarding the calibre of cadres who will lead local government in the coming term and implement firm accountability measures to ensure the successful implementation of the District Development Model.

Conclusion and the Way Forward
In conclusion, the ANC’s mid-term report provides a candid assessment of the party’s current state and the challenges it faces. The report highlights the need for renewal, governance reform, and mass work to restore the ANC’s hegemony. The party must adapt to the new political landscape, develop strategies to win back its traditional supporters, and leverage its influence within the GNU to drive transformation and development. As the country prepares for the 2026 elections, the ANC must take tough decisions and implement firm accountability measures to ensure the successful implementation of its policies and programs. The next two days of the NGC will be crucial in shaping the party’s strategy and direction, and it remains to be seen whether the ANC can rise to the challenges it faces and reclaim its position as the dominant force in South African politics.