Key Takeaways
- Kāinga Ora has cut its floating mortgage rate by 20 basis points and most of its fixed rates.
- ANZ reports a 3.9% increase in card transactions in November compared to the same time last year.
- Black Friday sales may have been a disappointment for retailers, with Salesforce reporting 0% year-over-year sales growth.
- Farmer sentiment has dipped from near-record highs, but remains positive.
- The NZX50 index is up 0.4% so far on Monday, with some major companies experiencing gains.
- Confidence in the government has hit a record low, according to a survey by Ipsos.
Introduction to Market Updates
The latest market updates bring a mix of news, with some positive developments and some negative ones. Kāinga Ora has made significant changes to its mortgage rates, cutting its floating rate by 20 basis points and most of its fixed rates. This move is likely to have a significant impact on the housing market, and borrowers can compare mortgage offers using a new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives.
Mortgage Rate Changes and Term Deposit Rates
The changes to mortgage rates are a significant development, and borrowers will be keenly watching the market to see how other lenders respond. In contrast, there have been no changes to term deposit rates, with all updated rates less than 1 year available online. The lack of movement in term deposit rates may be a reflection of the current economic conditions, with lenders waiting to see how the market develops before making any changes.
Card Activity and Retail Sales
ANZ has reported a 3.9% increase in card transactions in November compared to the same time last year, with durables spending experiencing the strongest annual growth at 8.0%. However, Black Friday sales may have been a disappointment for retailers, with Salesforce reporting 0% year-over-year sales growth. This suggests that consumers may be becoming more cautious in their spending habits, which could have implications for the retail sector.
Farmer Sentiment and NZX50 Index
Farmer sentiment has dipped from near-record highs, but remains positive, according to the latest Rabobank rural confidence survey. The NZX50 index is up 0.4% so far on Monday, with some major companies experiencing gains. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up 1.1% so far today, while Vital Healthcare has surged 7%. However, some companies, such as Kathmandu and SkyTV, are retreating.
Government Confidence and International Markets
Confidence in the government has hit a record low, according to a survey by Ipsos. This could have implications for the government’s ability to implement its policies and maintain internal cohesion. Internationally, Japan’s GDP contracted 0.6% in Q3 2025, a larger fall than expected. The US oil price is unchanged at just under US$60/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just under US$64/bbl.
Swap Rates and Equity Markets
Wholesale swap rates are firmer across the board, with the 90-day bank bill rate unchanged at 2.47% on Friday. The local equity market is up 0.4% in Monday trade so far, while the ASX200 is down 0.3% in afternoon trade. The NZD is up marginally against the US dollar, Aussie dollar, and euro, with the TWI-5 at just on 62 and up 10 basis points.
Commodity Prices and Bitcoin
The oil price is holding steady, while the carbon price has weakened, with secondary market transactions small and soft. Gold is up US$2/oz from yesterday, now at US$4199/oz. The bitcoin price is now at US$90,928 and up 1.6% from this morning, with volatility moderately at just over +/- 2.1%. Overall, the market is experiencing a mix of positive and negative developments, and investors will be keenly watching the market to see how it develops in the coming days.
