Ramaphosa’s Future: What the ANC’s NGC Means for South Africa

Key Takeaways:

• The African National Congress (ANC) is holding its National General Council (NGC) from December 8-12, a mid-term assessment of the party’s progress and policies.
• Rumors have been circulating about a potential plot to unseat President Cyril Ramaphosa, with some reports suggesting that former President Thabo Mbeki could be installed as a caretaker president.
• The ANC has denied these reports, with the party’s leagues, including the ANC Youth League and the Veterans League, coming out in support of Ramaphosa.
• The party has agreed to investigate the source of the rumors and has warned against factionalism and "wedge-drivers" within its ranks.
• Ramaphosa’s recent success in hosting the G20 summit has boosted his position, but some commentators believe that now may be the perfect moment for him to step down and enjoy the life of an African elder statesman.

Introduction to the National General Council
The National General Council (NGC) of the African National Congress (ANC) is a significant event in the party’s calendar, serving as a mid-term assessment of its progress and policies. Unlike national conferences, which are electoral gatherings, the NGC focuses on evaluating the party’s performance and resolving any issues that may have arisen since the previous conference. This year’s NGC, scheduled to take place from December 8-12, is expected to be a crucial gathering, with rumors circulating about a potential plot to unseat President Cyril Ramaphosa.

Rumors of a Plot Against Ramaphosa
The Sunday World has reported that President Ramaphosa could face a move to unseat him at the NGC, with former President Thabo Mbeki potentially being installed as a caretaker president. The publication claimed that the resistance to Ramaphosa is led by two deputy ministers, Mondli Gungubele and Joe Phaahla, who were demoted from full to deputy ministers last year. However, both Gungubele and Phaahla have denied the reports, and the ANC has warned against "misleading and destructive reporting." The party has also cautioned against factionalism and "wedge-drivers" within its ranks, quoting the late Oliver Tambo’s warning against such behavior.

ANC Leagues Defend Ramaphosa
The ANC’s leagues, including the ANC Youth League (ANCYL) and the Veterans League, have come out in support of President Ramaphosa, rejecting the reports of a plot to unseat him. The ANCYL, in particular, is significant, as it is often a staging post for generational insurrection within the party. The league’s denial of the reports suggests that Ramaphosa still enjoys significant support within the party. The Veterans League, led by Snuki Zikalala, has also condemned the reports, further emphasizing the party’s unity behind Ramaphosa.

Investigating the Source of the Rumors
The ANC has agreed to investigate the source of the rumors, with Gungubele asking the party’s National Working Committee to look into the matter. This move is seen as an attempt to quell the rumors and prevent further speculation about Ramaphosa’s position. The party’s decision to investigate the source of the rumors demonstrates its commitment to addressing the issue and maintaining unity within its ranks.

Ramaphosa’s Recent Success
President Ramaphosa’s recent success in hosting the G20 summit has boosted his position within the party and the country. The summit was seen as a significant achievement, with Ramaphosa coming across as a statesman who refused to engage in intemperate behavior, despite being attacked by US President Donald Trump. The success of the summit has shored up Ramaphosa’s position, making it less likely that he will face a challenge at the NGC.

Should Ramaphosa Stay or Go?
The question of whether Ramaphosa should stay or go is a complex one. Some commentators believe that now is the perfect moment for him to step down, given his recent success and the potential for him to enjoy the life of an African elder statesman. Others argue that now is not the time for a change in leadership, given the progress that South Africa has made under Ramaphosa’s presidency. The country’s trajectory has shifted, with an interest rate cut, a sensible inflation target, and an upgrade by the S&P Global Ratings agency all contributing to a more positive economic outlook. A change in leadership could alter the prevailing sentiment and undermine the progress that has been made.

Conclusion
The NGC is a significant event in the ANC’s calendar, and the rumors surrounding Ramaphosa’s position have added an extra layer of complexity to the gathering. While the party has denied the reports and come out in support of Ramaphosa, the question of whether he should stay or go remains a topic of debate. Ultimately, the decision will depend on the outcome of the NGC and the party’s internal dynamics. One thing is certain, however: the NGC will be a crucial moment in the ANC’s history, and its outcome will have significant implications for the party and the country.