Ramaphosa and Mantashe Throw Weight Behind Dark Horse Didiza for ANC Leadership

Key Takeaways

• National Assembly speaker Thoko Didiza has thrown her hat into the ring to succeed ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa in the 2027 leadership race.
• Didiza is believed to be favored by Ramaphosa and party national chairperson Gwede Mantashe, among other senior party figures.
• She is expected to face off against deputy president Paul Mashatile and ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula for the top post.
• Didiza’s candidacy is seen as an attempt by the party to try out a female leader and regain voter confidence.
• The ANC has been considering a female leader since the 2017 national conference, where Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma lost to Ramaphosa.

Introduction to the Leadership Race
The African National Congress (ANC) is gearing up for its 2027 leadership race, and a new contender has emerged. National Assembly speaker Thoko Didiza has formally thrown her hat into the ring to succeed ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa. Didiza is expected to face off against deputy president Paul Mashatile and ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula for the top post. According to insiders, Didiza is believed to be favored by Ramaphosa and party national chairperson Gwede Mantashe, among other senior party figures.

Ramaphosa’s Preference
Ramaphosa’s preference for Didiza is not surprising, given his history of backing her. Insiders claim that Ramaphosa has introduced Didiza to some ANC funders and big businesses, including those from Stellenbosch. One insider revealed that Ramaphosa told Stellenbosch businessmen that he prefers Didiza over other contenders. However, Mantashe has denied that he and Ramaphosa are backing Didiza, stating that the notion is wrong and has nothing to do with them. Despite this denial, sources suggest that Ramaphosa would have preferred to be succeeded by now-suspended police minister Senzo Mchunu, but the allegations he is facing have dashed any hope of him taking over.

Didiza’s Support Base
Didiza’s candidacy is seen as a long shot by some ANC leaders, who describe it as "stillborn" due to her lack of a clear support base. Mashatile is expected to have the backing of Gauteng, North West, and some parts of Limpopo, while Mbalula is consolidating support in the Free State and has made inroads in Mpumalanga. It is unclear where Didiza’s support will come from, with some leaders questioning her ability to garner votes. Didiza was previously rejected by Tshwane residents in 2016 when her name was put up as a possible replacement for Kgosientso "Sputla" Ramokgopa, leading to widespread protests.

Party Dynamics
Didiza’s candidacy is likely to create tension in the national general council, which starts tomorrow. Some of the people backing her are known to be allies of Mashatile and Mbalula, which could lead to interesting dynamics within the party. Mbalula would have expected Ramaphosa to stand behind his candidacy, while sources indicate that Mashatile and Ramaphosa have been strengthening their relationship. Mashatile and Mantashe have also been drawing closer, often backing each other on key NEC decisions. The introduction of Didiza into the race could disrupt these alliances and create new tensions within the party.

The Push for a Female Leader
The ANC has been considering trying out a female leader as a way to regain voter confidence. The party has been struggling to claw back its dwindling support base, and a female leader could be seen as a way to revitalize the party’s image. Ramaphosa has moved to empower women’s leadership in the party and state, giving senior and critical roles to women. The attempt to install a female leader fell flat at the 2017 national conference, where national executive committee member Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma lost to Ramaphosa. However, with Didiza’s candidacy, the party may be trying to make amends and give a female leader a chance to succeed.

Possible Slate
If Didiza’s candidacy is accepted by the ANC branches, her slate is likely to include Eastern Cape provincial chair Oscar Mabuyane and another leader from KwaZulu-Natal, either Mdumiseni Ntuli, Sihle Zikalala, or even Zweli Mkhize. This slate could potentially challenge the dominance of Mashatile and Mbalula, who have been consolidating their support bases in different provinces. The introduction of Didiza into the race has added a new layer of complexity to the leadership contest, and it remains to be seen how the party will respond to her candidacy.