Key Takeaways
- The DA holds a clear lead over the ANC in both Johannesburg (35 % vs 21.8 %) and Cape Town (52.6 % vs 23.6 %), but the margins are insufficient to secure outright majorities, meaning coalition governments are likely to continue.
- Helen Zille remains the most popular DA mayoral candidate in Johannesburg (30.6 %), while Action SA’s Herman Mashaba trails closely (23.4 %); the ANC’s best‑known hopeful, Dada Morero, lags at 15 %.
- In Cape Town, incumbent DA mayor Geordin Hill‑Lewis enjoys personal popularity of 55.4 %, outpacing his party’s overall support.
- Minor parties show notable strength in Johannesburg: the MK Party (12.5 %), EFF (11.9 %), and Action SA (10.3 %); the Patriotic Alliance remains marginal (3.7 %).
- Cape Town voters overwhelmingly favour a proposed wall along the N2 (69.6 % in favour, 19.9 % against) and largely blame the national government for gangsterism (45.3 %).
- Perceptions of municipal performance diverge sharply: 60.5 % of Capetonians view their city as well run, whereas only 29.2 % of Johannesburg residents share that view; 68.7 % of Johannesburgers consider their city poorly run.
- Xenophobia and foreign‑national tensions are a major concern in Johannesburg, with about 88 % of respondents identifying it as a problem and roughly two‑thirds expressing anger at the ANC‑led coalition over water provision and infrastructure maintenance.
- The poll’s methodology: 1,000 registered voters per metro surveyed between 12 August and 10 September, margin of error ≈3.1 %, modeled turnout 48.8 %; results for Durban and Pretoria will follow next week.
Poll Overview and Methodology
The eNCA MarkData survey was conducted from 12 August to 10 September 2025, interviewing a scientifically selected, representative sample of 1,000 registered voters in each metropolitan area who indicated they intend to vote. The margin of error stands at 3.08 % for Johannesburg and 3.09 % for Cape Town, while the modelled voter turnout is projected at 48.8 %. This robust sample size and error margin allow the poll to provide a reliable snapshot of current political preferences and issue‑based attitudes in South Africa’s two largest cities.
Johannesburg Party Support
In Johannesburg, the Democratic Alliance (DA) leads the African National Congress (ANC) by a substantial margin, securing 35 % of voter intention compared with the ANC’s 21.8 %. Other parties garnering double‑digit support include the MK Party at 12.5 %, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) at 11.9 %, and Action SA at 10.3 %. The Patriotic Alliance trails far behind with 3.7 %, while all remaining parties register below the 1 % threshold. This distribution underscores a fragmented opposition landscape that could complicate coalition‑building efforts after the election.
Johannesburg Mayoral Preferences
When respondents were asked about preferred mayoral candidates, DA figurehead Helen Zille emerged as the most popular choice at 30.6 %. Action SA’s leader and former Johannesburg mayor Herman Mashaba followed closely with 23.4 %. The ANC, still without an official nominee, saw its highest‑rated hopeful—current mayor Dada Morero—at 15 %, well behind the two leading contenders. The significant gap between Zille/Mashaba and the ANC’s best candidate highlights the DA’s current advantage in the mayoral race, despite the need for coalition partners to achieve a governing majority.
Cape Town Party Support
Shifting to Cape Town, the DA maintains a commanding lead, polling at 52.6 % versus the ANC’s 23.6 %. The EFF registers 6.5 % support, the Patriotic Alliance 3.9 %, and the MK Party a modest 1.5 %; no other party surpasses the 1 % mark. This broader gap compared with Johannesburg suggests the DA is in a stronger position to retain outright control, although it will still need to maximize voter turnout among its base to safeguard its majority.
Cape Town Mayoral Popularity
Incumbent DA mayor Geordin Hill‑Lewis enjoys personal approval of 55.4 %, exceeding his party’s overall level of support. No opposition candidate approaches double‑digit approval, indicating that Hill‑Lewis remains the clear favourite among Capetonians. His personal popularity could be a decisive factor in mobilising DA voters and potentially attracting undecided or soft‑support voters from other parties.
Issue‑Based Attitudes in Cape Town
The poll also probed local concerns. A striking 69.6 % of respondents favoured the construction of a wall along the N2 highway, while only 19.9 % opposed it. Regarding gangsterism, 45.3 % blamed the national government, 25.3 % pointed to the city government, 14.1 % held the provincial government responsible, and more than 10 % attributed blame to none of these entities. Additionally, 60.5 % of Capetonians believe their city is well run, whereas 36.2 % view it as poorly run, reflecting a generally positive perception of municipal governance in the Western Cape metro.
Johannesburg Perceptions of Governance and Xenophobia
In stark contrast, only 29.2 % of Johannesburg residents consider their city well run, while a striking 68.7 % deem it poorly run. Xenophobia and tensions involving foreign nationals are perceived as a serious problem by about 88 % of Johannesburgers. Furthermore, roughly two‑thirds of respondents expressed anger at the current ANC‑led coalition government over issues of water provision and infrastructure maintenance. These figures highlight deep dissatisfaction with service delivery and social cohesion in the City of Gold.
Implications for Future Coalitions
Although the DA leads in both metros, the vote shares fall short of the thresholds needed for unilateral governance. In Johannesburg, the DA would need to secure support from at least two of the smaller parties—such as the MK Party, EFF, or Action SA—to surpass the 50 % mark. In Cape Town, the DA’s lead is more comfortable, but maintaining voter enthusiasm and converting sympathisers into actual votes will be essential to avoid a surprise loss of majority. The poll underscores that coalition negotiations will be pivotal, with issue‑based concerns—particularly service delivery, xenophobia, and infrastructure—likely to shape the bargaining positions of all parties involved.
Upcoming Poll Releases
The eNCA MarkData team announced that results for Durban’s eThekwini metro and Pretoria’s Tshwane metro will be disclosed next week. Earlier releases covered Ekurhuleni and Nelson Mandela Bay, providing a growing picture of metropolitan electoral dynamics across South Africa. Stakeholders from all parties will be watching these forthcoming datasets closely as they refine campaign strategies and coalition prospects ahead of the municipal elections.