South Africa’s G20 Ambitions Face US Resistance

Key Takeaways:

• The G20 summit in South Africa was a triumph for Africa, with the continent’s interests dominating the Leaders’ Declaration.
• The summit addressed key issues such as debt sustainability, disaster resilience, and energy transition, with a focus on Africa’s needs.
• Despite US hostility, the summit achieved a comprehensive development-oriented agenda, but its implementation remains a concern.
• The US has announced a different focus for its 2026 G20 presidency, which may undermine South Africa’s agenda.
• South Africa may sit out the 2026 G20 season and return in 2027 when the UK takes over the presidency.

Introduction to the G20 Summit
The G20 summit held in Johannesburg, South Africa, was a significant event for the continent, as it marked the first time the summit was held on African soil. The summit’s Leaders’ Declaration, adopted on November 23, reflected Africa’s interests and priorities, including debt sustainability, disaster resilience, and energy transition. The declaration was a major achievement, given the initial doubts about whether a consensus could be reached, particularly due to the hostility of the United States towards South Africa’s developmental themes.

Deft Diplomacy
The success of the summit can be attributed to the deft diplomacy of South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and his team. Despite the initial threat of a weaker "Chair’s Statement," Ramaphosa managed to secure a comprehensive Leaders’ Declaration, which included South Africa’s four G20 priorities. The declaration was adopted at the start of the summit, pre-empting an expected rejection by Argentina, which was acting as a proxy for the United States. The declaration’s focus on Africa’s needs, including debt sustainability, disaster resilience, and energy transition, was a significant achievement, given the continent’s vulnerabilities in these areas.

G20 Priorities
The G20 priorities outlined in the declaration are crucial for Africa’s development, particularly debt sustainability. The African Union estimates that 21 of its member states are in debt distress or at risk of it, and the declaration’s measures to strengthen the implementation of the G20 Common Framework for debt treatments are welcome. The declaration also endorsed several existing international measures to finance disaster prevention and response, with a focus on Africa. Additionally, the measures proposed to ensure that countries benefit from domestic processing of their own critical minerals stressed the importance of Africa, which owns a significant proportion of the world’s critical minerals.

Just Energy Transitions
The summit’s focus on Just Energy Transitions was also significant, given that over 600 million Africans lack access to electricity. The declaration noted the need to accelerate progress in the implementation of existing frameworks to finance energy transitions, particularly in Africa. The G20 Partnership for Africa, launched by Germany in 2017, was also reaffirmed, with a focus on business-led development for the continent. The second phase of the compact, launched at the Johannesburg summit, aims to boost economic growth through investment rather than development aid, which is in tune with the current global trend.

Implementation Challenges
Despite the promising rhetoric, the implementation of the declaration’s measures remains a concern. The G20 makes no binding decisions, and the lack of concrete commitments may undermine the declaration’s impact. The United States’ hostility towards South Africa’s developmental themes and its announcement that it would not invite South Africa to its G20 Summit in Miami next December have further complicated the implementation of the declaration’s measures. The US has also announced a different focus for its 2026 G20 presidency, which may undermine South Africa’s agenda.

Conclusion
In conclusion, the G20 summit in South Africa was a significant achievement for the continent, with a comprehensive development-oriented agenda that addressed key issues such as debt sustainability, disaster resilience, and energy transition. However, the implementation of the declaration’s measures remains a concern, given the lack of concrete commitments and the US hostility towards South Africa’s developmental themes. South Africa may need to sit out the 2026 G20 season and return in 2027 when the UK takes over the presidency, in the hope of reviving at least the high points of its agenda. Ultimately, the success of the declaration will depend on the ability of African countries to mobilize support and resources to implement its measures, despite the challenges posed by the US and other external factors.