Key Takeaways
- The US and Ukraine are negotiating a peace deal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, with proposals expected to be finalized within days
- The deal includes security guarantees, which would "mirror article 5" of NATO, and could involve troops from a "coalition of the willing" to assist in Ukraine’s regeneration
- The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators is the issue of land, with Ukraine wanting to freeze the lines at the current point of contact and Russia wanting to control the Donbas region
- The US has proposed a compromise solution, including a "free economic zone" in the demilitarized area, but it is unclear if Russia will agree
- The Russian side is absent from the current talks, and it is unclear if they will accept the proposed deal, with Putin giving no sign of willingness to compromise on his war aims
Introduction to the Peace Talks
The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has announced that proposals for a peace deal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine could be finalized within days. After two days of talks in Berlin with US officials, Zelenskyy stated that the US Congress was expected to vote on security guarantees, and that he expected a finalized set of documents to be prepared "today or tomorrow". The US would then hold consultations with the Russians, followed by high-level meetings that could take place as soon as this weekend. The talks are a significant development in the ongoing conflict, which has been raging since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The Security Package
The security package being discussed includes guarantees that would "mirror article 5" of NATO, which provides for collective defense among member states. Zelenskyy stated that the guarantees would be "legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress". The US officials declined to give specific details of what the security package was likely to include, and what would happen if Russia attempted to seize more land after a peace deal was reached. However, they did confirm that the US did not plan to put boots on the ground in Ukraine. The leaders of the UK, France, Germany, and eight other European countries stated that troops from a "coalition of the willing" could "assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine".
The Russian Response
The Russian side has not been present at the current talks, and it is unclear if they will accept the proposed deal. The Kremlin stated that it had not seen the details of proposals on security guarantees, and Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, said Russia would not agree to troops from NATO countries operating in Ukraine "under any circumstances". The German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, said that peace was closer than at any time since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion, but privately, European officials say that at this stage, the talks are more about keeping the US onboard with supporting Ukraine than about reaching a lasting deal between Moscow and Kyiv.
The Territorial Issue
The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the issue of land. The US wants Ukraine to give up the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines at the current point of contact. Zelenskyy stated that "we are discussing the territorial issue. You know it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet". The US negotiation team has proposed a compromise solution whereby Ukraine would withdraw, but Russia would not advance and the demilitarized area would become "a free economic zone". However, Russia has suggested that they could use police and national guard formations rather than the military, implying they would still expect to control the territory.
The Path Forward
It is unclear how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue, with Zelenskyy previously suggesting that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims. Zelenskyy stated that "if Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence". He believes that the US will apply sanctions pressure and provide Ukraine with more weapons if Putin rejects the deal, which he thinks would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans. The outcome of the talks remains uncertain, and it is unclear if a lasting peace deal can be reached.
