Key Takeaways:
- Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has outlined a 20-point peace plan to end the war with Russia, which includes security guarantees from the US, Nato, and Europeans.
- The plan proposes the creation of a demilitarized zone in eastern Ukraine, with the potential for a free economic zone in the Donbas region.
- Russia would be required to pull back its troops in exchange for Ukraine’s withdrawal, with international forces monitoring the contact line.
- The plan includes a non-aggression pact between Russia and Ukraine, with a monitoring mechanism, and allows Ukraine to maintain a military strength of 800,000 in peacetime.
- The plan also proposes Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, with a defined date, and the establishment of a Ukraine investment fund of around $200bn.
Introduction to the Peace Plan
The Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, has provided details of an updated peace plan aimed at ending the ongoing conflict with Russia. The 20-point plan, agreed upon by US and Ukrainian envoys in Florida, offers Russia the potential withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the east and the creation of a demilitarized zone in their place. This plan is seen as an update to an original 28-point document, which was widely viewed as being heavily geared towards Russia’s demands. The new plan provides Ukraine with strong security guarantees, mirroring Nato membership, and proposes a coordinated military response if Russia were to invade Ukraine again.
Details of the Peace Plan
The plan proposes the creation of a free economic zone in the Donbas region, which would be policed by Ukraine, with international forces monitoring the contact line to prevent Russian infiltration. Zelensky emphasized that any area that Ukrainian troops pulled out of would have to be under Ukrainian administration and police, and not the so-called Russian police. The plan also includes a non-aggression pact between Russia and Ukraine, with a monitoring mechanism, and allows Ukraine to maintain a military strength of 800,000 in peacetime. Additionally, the plan proposes Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, with a defined date, and the establishment of a Ukraine investment fund of around $200bn.
Territorial Issues
Sensitive issues, including questions over territory, would have to be resolved at the leaders’ level. However, the new draft provides Ukraine with strong security guarantees and a military strength of 800,000. Zelensky explained that if Ukraine was prepared to pull its heavy forces back by five, 10, or 40km in the 25% of Donetsk it still held, then Russia would have to do the same. Russian troops are currently about 40km east of Ukraine’s "fortress belt" cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, having captured the town of Siversk. The plan also proposes the establishment of a demilitarized zone around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, currently occupied by Russia, and the withdrawal of Russian troops from four other Ukrainian regions.
Reactions to the Plan
Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to be impressed by the kind of compromise being proposed for Donetsk, having stated that Russia would take control of the entire east of Ukraine by force if Ukrainian troops did not pull out. However, Zelensky believes that Russia cannot afford to reject the US plan, as it would lead to increased sanctions and military aid to Ukraine. The Ukrainian president emphasized that if a free economic zone were established in Donetsk, it would have to be under Ukrainian administration and police, and that a referendum would need to be held on the whole peace plan.
International Involvement
The US has been pushing for a deal to end the conflict, with President Donald Trump’s team speaking separately to Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev and then Ukrainian and European officials. The plan proposes a coalition of international forces to monitor the contact line and ensure no Russian infiltration. The European Union has also been involved in the negotiations, with a proposal to police any peace deal through a Coalition of the Willing. However, Russia has rejected this proposal as a "brazen threat".
Conclusion
The updated peace plan offers a potential solution to the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. While there are still many details to be worked out, the plan provides a framework for a peaceful resolution, with strong security guarantees for Ukraine and a coordinated military response if Russia were to invade again. The plan also proposes Ukraine’s accession to the European Union and the establishment of a Ukraine investment fund, which could help to rebuild the country’s economy. Ultimately, the success of the plan will depend on the willingness of both parties to compromise and work towards a peaceful resolution.
