Key Takeaways
- Mortgage rates remain unchanged, with a new calculator available to compare offers
- Term deposit rates have been reduced by Kiwibank and Liberty Financial for certain terms
- Residential construction costs are increasing due to higher timber prices
- Dairy prices have fallen to a two-year low, with the GDT index down 18.2% since its May peak
- The ANZ commodity price index has fallen 1.6% in November, with dairy prices down 5.4% and meat prices up 3.5%
- The NZX50 index is unchanged, with some stocks gaining and others declining
- The economy is expected to grow at just under 3% per annum out to 2027, according to BusinessNZ forecasts
Introduction to Market Updates
The latest market updates indicate a mixed bag of changes and trends. Mortgage rates remain unchanged, with a new calculator available to help compare offers and take into account other costs and cashback incentives. Term deposit rates have been reduced by Kiwibank and Liberty Financial for certain terms, with all updated rates available online. These changes may have implications for consumers and businesses looking to borrow or save money.
Construction and Commodity Prices
Residential construction costs are increasing due to higher timber prices, according to QV CostBuilder data. This comes after a period of low to falling prices, and may have implications for the construction industry and homeowners. The ANZ commodity price index has fallen 1.6% in November, with dairy prices down 5.4% and meat prices up 3.5%. This is the first annual fall since December 2023, and may have implications for farmers and the broader economy.
Dairy and Meat Prices
Dairy prices have fallen to a two-year low, with the GDT index down 18.2% since its May peak. This is the eighth consecutive drop in dairy auctions, and may have implications for dairy farmers and the broader economy. Meat prices, on the other hand, have risen 3.5% in November, providing some balance to the decline in dairy prices. The trend in dairy prices is not positive, and analysts may need to revisit their current season payout forecasts.
Car Market and NZX50 Index
The car market is seeing an increase in new passenger vehicle registrations, with 10,247 registrations in November, up 14.5% on the year-ago period. Hybrid models remain dominant, with the Toyota RAV4 the top-selling model. Used imports, on the other hand, have fallen 5.2% from the year-ago month, and are now down 24.7% from a year ago. The NZX50 index is unchanged, with some stocks gaining and others declining. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up 0.4% today, while Skellerup, SkyCity casino, Gentrack, and Hallensteins have also gained.
Economic Forecasts and Swap Rates
The economy is expected to grow at just under 3% per annum out to 2027, according to BusinessNZ forecasts. The BusinessNZ Economic Conditions Index (ECI) stands at +13 for the December 2025 quarter, up nine points from the previous quarter and two points higher than a year ago. An ECI reading above zero indicates improving economic conditions, while a reading below zero signals a general decline. Wholesale swap rates have retreated a bit today, especially at the longer end, with the 90-day bank bill rate up 1 bp at 2.47% on Tuesday.
International Market Updates
The Australian economy grew less than expected in Q3-2025, with economic activity expanding 0.4% from the June quarter. This is less than the expected 0.7% expansion, and may have implications for the broader economy. The oil price in the US is down US$1 at just under US$58.50/bbl, and the international Brent price is down 50 USc, now at just under US$62.50/bbl. The carbon price remains stalled at the low $40/NZU, with no trades reported today.
Currency and Bitcoin Updates
The Kiwi dollar is up 20 bps from this time yesterday, now just under 57.5 USc. Against the Aussie, the Kiwi dollar is down 10 bps at 87.4 AUc. The bitcoin price is now at US$92,374 and up a strong 6.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been high at just on +/- 3.3%. The interest.co.nz team will be taking the day off on Thursday, December 4, 2025, for their end-of-year function, and there will be no 4pm update on that day.
Conclusion and Final Thoughts
In conclusion, the latest market updates indicate a mixed bag of changes and trends. From mortgage rates and term deposit rates, to construction costs and commodity prices, there are many factors to consider. The economy is expected to grow at just under 3% per annum out to 2027, according to BusinessNZ forecasts, but there are still many uncertainties and challenges to navigate. As always, it’s essential to stay informed and up-to-date on the latest market developments to make informed decisions.
