Key Takeaways
- The capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is unlikely to have an immediate impact on gas prices in the US.
- Experts predict that any changes to oil production in Venezuela will take years to materialize and may be measured in pennies per gallon rather than dimes.
- The outlook for oil prices is ambiguous in the near term, with potential for either slight increases or decreases.
- Major oil companies may be hesitant to invest in Venezuela due to geopolitical risks and steep costs.
- Declines in crude prices are often not fully passed on to consumers, so even if oil prices drop, gas prices may not decrease as much.
Introduction to the Situation
The recent capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has sparked debate among policy experts about the potential effects on the global economy, particularly with regards to oil prices. As Americans fill up their gas tanks, they may be wondering if this event will have an impact on their pocketbooks. However, according to experts, it is unlikely that there will be any significant changes in the near future. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, notes that "many folks are far too optimistic that this will have immediate and measurable effect" on gas prices.
Expert Analysis
Commodities analysts at Goldman Sachs agree with De Haan’s assessment, calling the outlook for prices "ambiguous" in the near term. In a research report published on January 4, the Goldman team explained that production may edge up slightly in the short-run, but disruptions to Venezuela oil deliveries could continue or even intensify. This ambiguity is due to the uncertainty surrounding the future of Venezuela’s government and the potential for US-supported sanctions relief. De Haan warns that even under the most optimistic timelines, it will take years for oil supply to enter the world market, and major oil companies may be hesitant to invest in Venezuela due to geopolitical risks and steep costs.
Potential Impact on Oil Prices
President Donald Trump has stated that "very large oil companies" will spend "billions of dollars" in Venezuela, which has the largest oil reserves of any nation worldwide. However, experts are skeptical about the potential impact on oil prices. Independent energy analyst Rachel Ziemba notes that declines in the price of crude are often not fully passed on to consumers. For example, crude prices were down nearly 20% in 2025, but gas prices fell less than 10%. On January 5, crude prices were up about 1.5% after the weekend raid, but the Goldman analysts are forecasting only a $2 per barrel change either up or down, depending on whether the more optimistic or pessimistic scenario comes to pass.
Geopolitical Risks and Investment
The geopolitical risks and steep costs associated with investing in Venezuela’s oil industry are significant concerns for major oil companies. De Haan wonders how much incentive these companies have to tackle such a project, given the potential risks and costs. Ziemba agrees, noting that the administration’s indication that the process will be smooth and easy is overly optimistic. The reality is that investing in Venezuela’s oil industry will be a complex and challenging process, requiring significant investment and time.
Conclusion and Future Outlook
The bottom line for consumers is that the potential for additional oil may stabilize oil prices in the years to come, but don’t expect gas price parties with a national average below $2/gal anytime soon. De Haan’s prediction is that any changes to oil production in Venezuela will be measured in pennies per gallon rather than dimes. As the situation in Venezuela continues to unfold, it is essential to keep a close eye on the developments and their potential impact on the global economy. However, for now, it is unlikely that the capture of President Maduro will have a significant impact on gas prices in the US.