Key Takeaways:
- US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met in Florida to discuss a potential peace deal to end the war in Ukraine.
- Trump stated that a breakthrough was "getting a lot closer," but Zelenskyy warned that longer-term security guarantees would be needed to deter Russia.
- The two leaders discussed a 20-point peace plan, with Zelenskyy stating that they were "90 per cent" of the way towards reaching a deal.
- The US and Ukraine are seeking a security guarantee that would last for 30, 40, or 50 years, while the current proposal would expire after 15 years.
- Trump and Zelenskyy also discussed the possibility of a demilitarized zone in the Donbas region, with Zelenskyy agreeing to pull back troops if Russia did the same.
Introduction to the Meeting
The meeting between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Florida marked a significant step towards finding a peaceful resolution to the ongoing war in Ukraine. The two leaders met at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, where they engaged in an "excellent" discussion that made "a lot of progress" towards ending Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Trump’s comments came after a major missile and drone attack by Russia on Kyiv, which highlighted the urgency of finding a peaceful solution to the conflict.
The Peace Plan
The 20-point peace plan discussed by Trump and Zelenskyy includes a range of provisions aimed at ending the war and establishing a lasting peace in Ukraine. Zelenskyy stated that the military aspects of the proposal were "100 per cent agreed," but did not provide specific details. The plan is believed to include provisions for a demilitarized zone in the Donbas region, as well as security guarantees for Ukraine. However, the duration of these guarantees remains a point of contention, with Ukraine seeking a longer-term commitment from the US and its European allies.
Security Guarantees
The issue of security guarantees is a crucial one for Ukraine, which has been seeking a long-term commitment from the US and its European allies to deter Russian aggression. Zelenskyy has stated that a security guarantee of 15 years, as currently proposed, would be too short, and has instead suggested a guarantee of 30, 40, or 50 years. Trump has indicated that he is open to working with Europe to provide a security guarantee, but the details of such a guarantee remain unclear. The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, has welcomed the progress made in the talks, but emphasized the need for "ironclad security guarantees from day one."
The Role of Russia
Russia’s role in the conflict remains a significant obstacle to a peaceful resolution. Putin has stuck to his maximalist demands, including the requirement that Ukraine unilaterally withdraw from the remaining part of the eastern Donbas region still under Kyiv’s control. Trump’s original plan, drawn up with Russia’s help, called for this area to be recognized officially as Russian territory, a proposal that Zelenskyy has described as a red line. The issue of a demilitarized zone in the Donbas region remains unresolved, with Zelenskyy agreeing to pull back troops if Russia does the same and the territory remains officially part of Ukraine.
The Way Forward
Despite the challenges that remain, the meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy has raised hopes for a peaceful resolution to the conflict. The two leaders have agreed to continue working towards a deal, with Trump stating that he wants to "work with Europe" to provide a security guarantee for Ukraine. The US and Ukraine will need to work closely with European leaders, including UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, to build support for a peace deal. Ultimately, the success of any peace plan will depend on the ability of the US, Ukraine, and their European allies to provide a credible and lasting security guarantee for Ukraine, and to persuade Russia to abandon its maximalist demands and work towards a peaceful resolution.