Key Takeaways:
- A deal to end the war in Ukraine is "closer than ever" according to Donald Trump, but "thorny" questions over the future of the eastern Donbas region remain unresolved.
- Trump met with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Florida to discuss a 20-point peace plan and the future of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.
- The US president acknowledged there were "one or two tough" outstanding issues, including territory and how the war might end.
- Trump expressed sympathy with Russia not wanting a ceasefire and offered to travel to Kyiv to address Ukraine’s parliament ahead of a possible vote on a peace plan.
- Despite the positive optics, there were few signs that a genuine agreement was imminent, with Russia showing no signs of dropping its maximalist demands.
Introduction to the Meeting
The meeting between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Florida was seen as a crucial step towards ending the war in Ukraine. Trump stated that a deal was "closer than ever" and that he believed both sides were willing to move forward. However, he also acknowledged that there were still "thorny" questions to be resolved, particularly with regards to the future of the eastern Donbas region. The meeting took place just hours after Trump held a lengthy phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which he described as "good and very productive".
The Peace Plan
The 20-point peace plan was discussed during the meeting, with Zelenskyy stating that 90% of the draft had been agreed upon. However, the remaining 10% is likely to be the most difficult to resolve, with Russia showing no signs of dropping its maximalist demands. The plan includes a demilitarized zone in the Donbas region, with both sides withdrawing from the line of contact. However, the issue of security guarantees to prevent Russia from attacking again remains a major sticking point. Trump has made no military commitment to defend Ukraine, which has raised concerns about the effectiveness of the peace plan.
Russia’s Position
Russia’s position on the peace plan remains unchanged, with Putin showing no signs of willingness to compromise. The Kremlin has stated that a ceasefire proposed by Ukraine and Europe would only prolong the fighting and is fraught with renewed hostilities. Russia’s defence ministry also announced that its forces had seized five settlements in eastern and southern Ukraine, which appeared to be a message to Trump that Russia’s victory in Donbas is inevitable. This move is likely to increase tensions and make it more difficult to reach a peaceful resolution.
The Role of the US
The US has been playing a key role in the peace talks, with Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner involved in the negotiations. However, Trump’s unwillingness to pressure Russia has raised concerns about the effectiveness of the US’s role in the peace process. The US has not made any military commitment to defend Ukraine, which has left the country vulnerable to Russian aggression. The US’s position on the peace plan is also unclear, with Trump stating that he believes Ukraine has made some strong attacks against Russia.
The Human Cost
The war in Ukraine has had a devastating impact on civilians, with over 500 drones and ballistic missiles launched against Kyiv in a 12-hour attack. The attack killed four people and left half a million without power. The Ukrainian capital has been hit by numerous attacks in recent weeks, with Russia showing no signs of easing its aggression. The humanitarian situation in Ukraine is dire, with many civilians caught in the crossfire and struggling to access basic necessities like food and shelter.
The Way Forward
The way forward for the peace talks is uncertain, with many obstacles still to be overcome. The fundamental flaw in the current diplomatic push is the absence of the aggressor, Vladimir Putin, at the negotiating table. Peace is not achieved by one side agreeing to terms with a third party; it requires the principal belligerent to commit to a ceasefire and withdrawal. As long as Russia is actively launching its heaviest attacks in months, it is signaling that it has no intention of honoring a deal it did not sign. The international community must continue to pressure Russia to negotiate in good faith and to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy was a significant step towards ending the war in Ukraine, but many challenges remain. The peace plan is still in its draft stage, and Russia’s maximalist demands have not been dropped. The US’s role in the peace process is crucial, but its unwillingness to pressure Russia has raised concerns about the effectiveness of the peace plan. The humanitarian situation in Ukraine is dire, and the international community must continue to pressure Russia to negotiate in good faith. Ultimately, a lasting peace can only be achieved if all parties are committed to finding a solution that respects the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.