Key Takeaways
- A category one cyclone is likely to form off the coast of north Queensland this weekend and cross the coast late tomorrow or on Sunday
- Severe weather warnings have been issued for broad parts of north and Far North Queensland, with heavy rainfall and damaging winds expected
- Flood warnings have been issued for the Lower Herbert catchment and the Tully River, with isolated heavy rainfalls of over 350mm in 24 hours possible
- Residents and visitors in the Cairns region are being asked to restrict their water use due to high turbidity in the Freshwater Creek catchment
- North-west communities are bracing themselves for the chance of more rainfall, with some towns still isolated with floodwaters lingering
Introduction to the Cyclone Warning
A category one cyclone is now highly likely to form off the coast of north Queensland this weekend and cross the coast late tomorrow or on Sunday. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has stated that there is a 60% chance that the low-pressure system in the Coral Sea will develop into a cyclone by Saturday. The storm is forecast to cross the coast between Cairns and Ayr, with severe weather warnings issued for broad parts of north and Far North Queensland. The affected areas have already been impacted by recent rainfall, stretching from Cooktown to Hamilton Island, including Townsville, Bowen, and Cairns.
Severe Weather Warnings and Flood Risks
The BOM has forecast a 60% chance of a cyclone developing by Saturday evening, with severe weather warnings issued for heavy rainfall and damaging winds. The slow-moving storm, called Tropical Low 12U, is currently north-west of Willis Island and is expected to turn south-west today before crossing the coast between Cairns and Ayr late tomorrow or on Sunday. The heavy rainfall and damaging wind impacts are likely to be similar whether or not it becomes a tropical cyclone, according to the BOM. Flood warnings have been issued for the Lower Herbert catchment and the Tully River, with isolated heavy rainfalls of over 350mm in 24 hours possible in areas between Townsville and Cairns, which may lead to life-threatening flash flooding.
Preparations and Response
Cairns Regional Council local disaster coordinator Rhys Newton has stated that staff are well advanced in preparations across the region, but urged residents to make their own preparations in case of flooding or other emergencies. Residents and visitors in the Cairns region are being asked to restrict their water use to drinking, cooking, and bathing due to high turbidity in the Freshwater Creek catchment caused by heavy rain. The council has declared level 4 water restrictions, with residents asked to stop watering gardens, washing vehicles, or filling pools for a period. The Tully River is rising and is likely to exceed the minor flood level overnight, with the bureau issuing a broad flood watch for Coastal Rivers between Daintree to Pioneer Rivers and the Cape York Peninsula.
Uncertainty for North-West Communities
North-west communities are bracing themselves for the chance of more rainfall, even as some towns remain isolated with floodwaters still lingering. Senior meteorologist Harry Clark has stated that there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where rainfall will occur from late in the weekend into early next week. While some modelling indicates that the rainfall will trend further north-west out towards the Gulf of Carpentaria by early next week, other models suggest it will move into central Queensland. A Major flood warning remains in place for the Flinders River, with major flooding continuing at Walkers Bend, and moderate flooding occurring at Richmond. Moderate flood warnings also remain in place for the Norman and Georgina Rivers, with flood levels likely to continue in areas such as Winton and Normanton over coming days.
Rainfall and Flooding Risks
The major risk far and away is the amount of rain that will lead to flooding in areas that have already copped a battering over the last week, according to Premier David Crisafulli. The BOM’s Matt Collopy has stated that the highest rainfall and the risk of flooding will depend on the exact path of the tropical low and its strength as it moves towards the coast. Tropical low 12U, which is in the Coral Sea around 400km north-east of Cairns, is expected to move slowly south over the coming day towards the coast between Cairns and Townsville. The bureau has issued a tropical cyclone warning and watch areas, with the warning area stretching from Port Douglas to Tully for the onset of gale force winds, up to 90kph in the next 24 hours.