Key Takeaways:
- The 2026 Texas elections will be highly competitive, with several key races and issues on the ballot.
- The Republican primary for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Sen. John Cornyn is expected to be contentious, with multiple candidates vying for the nomination.
- The Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate seat will feature two candidates, Dallas U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and Austin state Rep. James Talarico.
- The attorney general’s office will have a new leader, as Ken Paxton is running for Senate, and several candidates are vying for the position.
- Latino voters will play a crucial role in the 2026 elections, and their support for Republicans may be in peril due to the Trump administration’s immigration policies.
- The new congressional map in Texas is expected to lead to several competitive races, with Democrats targeting three seats that were redrawn to favor Republicans.
- Democrats are hoping for a blue wave in the legislative races, but face an uphill battle to flip enough seats to gain control of the Texas House.
Introduction to 2026 Texas Elections
The year 2025 was a significant one for Texas politics, with the election of a new House speaker, the passage of a private school voucher program, and a devastating flood in the Hill Country that killed over 130 people. The state’s response to the flood, including the passage of bipartisan bills to improve flood infrastructure and disaster response, will likely be an important issue in the 2026 elections. As the state looks to the future, several key races and issues will be on the ballot, including the U.S. Senate seat, the attorney general’s office, and several congressional seats.
The U.S. Senate Seat
The Republican primary for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Sen. John Cornyn is expected to be highly competitive, with multiple candidates vying for the nomination. Cornyn, who has been a U.S. senator from Texas for decades, is facing his toughest reelection bid yet, battling against Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt. Paxton has alleged that Cornyn is out of touch with grassroots voters in Texas and is insufficiently conservative, while Cornyn has touted his loyalty to President Donald Trump and highlighted Paxton’s scandals, including bribery allegations and his wife divorcing him on "biblical grounds." On the Democratic side, two candidates, Dallas U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and Austin state Rep. James Talarico, are competing in the primary, with the winner hoping to do what has proven impossible for the past 30 years – win a statewide race in Texas.
The Attorney General’s Office
The attorney general’s office will have a new leader in 2026, as Ken Paxton is running for Senate. Several candidates are vying for the position, including U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, state Sen. Mayes Middleton, state Sen. Joan Huffman, and Aaron Reitz, Paxton’s former right-hand man. On the Democratic side, three candidates, state Sen. Nathan Johnson, former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski, and Dallas attorney Tony Box, are competing in the primary. The new attorney general will play a crucial role in shaping the state’s legal agenda and responding to the challenges facing Texas, including the ongoing impact of the Hill Country flood.
Latino Voters
Latino voters will play a crucial role in the 2026 elections, and their support for Republicans may be in peril due to the Trump administration’s immigration policies. While President Trump made significant gains among Latino voters in 2024, early evidence suggests that this support may be wavering. A Pew Research Center study found that while many Latino voters who supported Trump in 2024 still back him, a large divide remains based on how people voted in 2024. The stakes are high, with Texas Republicans having redrawn the state’s congressional districts to favor the GOP, but Democrats hoping to capitalize on any backlash against the Trump administration.
The New Congressional Map
The new congressional map in Texas is expected to lead to several competitive races, with Democrats targeting three seats that were redrawn to favor Republicans. The map, which was approved by the GOP-controlled Legislature over intense opposition from House Democrats, is designed to hand the GOP up to five additional seats in the U.S. House. However, Democrats are hoping to flip some of these seats, particularly in the 28th, 34th, and 35th Congressional Districts, which were redrawn to add Hispanic voters. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has added the 35th Congressional District to its list of "districts in play," and several Democratic candidates are vying for the seat.
Legislative Races
Democrats are hoping for a blue wave in the legislative races, but face an uphill battle to flip enough seats to gain control of the Texas House. The party is campaigning in every federal and state race on the ballot, hoping to maximize their chances of flipping seats and boosting statewide candidates. The House Democratic Campaign Committee is targeting several seats that Democrats tried and failed to turn in 2024, including House Districts 34, 37, 112, 118, and 121. However, Republicans currently control 88 out of 150 Texas House seats, meaning Democrats would need to flip 14 seats to win control of the chamber – a Herculean task even under the most favorable conditions. Despite the challenges, Democrats are hopeful that 2026 will resemble 2018, the last Trump midterm election year, when the party picked up 12 Texas House seats.