South Africa’s Population Conundrum: Stats SA Faces New Headcount Challenge

Key Takeaways:

• Stats SA has rejected a private fibre operator’s claim that South Africa’s population could be higher than official figures, citing the need for transparent and replicable statistical methods.
• The official population estimate as of mid-2025 is 63.01-million, while the private operator, Fibretime, estimates it could be above 95-million.
• Stats SA uses a cohort-component approach to calculate the mid-year population estimate, relying on data on births, deaths, net migration, and other inputs.
• The use of innovative technologies such as aerial imaging and AI-based extrapolations may offer supplementary insights, but cannot replace traditional statistical methods.
• The disagreement over official statistics is not the first, with independent experts and research bodies having questioned aspects of the 2022 census and its post-enumeration adjustments.

Introduction to the Disagreement
The South African national statistics agency, Stats SA, has firmly rejected a claim by a private fibre operator, Fibretime, that the country’s population could be significantly higher than official figures. According to Solly Molayi, acting director-general of population and social statistics, the official population estimate as of mid-2025 is 63.01-million, while Fibretime estimates it could be above 95-million. This discrepancy has significant implications for economic and fiscal analysis, and highlights the importance of accurate and reliable statistical methods.

Methodological Differences
Fibretime’s estimate is based on operational samples from its rollout, including data from over 250,000 homes visited and planning data for over 2-million households, combined with drone imagery and AI modelling. In contrast, Stats SA uses a cohort-component approach to calculate the mid-year population estimate, relying on data on births, deaths, net migration, and other inputs. This approach is anchored to the 2022 national census, which was the first digital census conducted by Stats SA. Molayi emphasized that while innovative technologies such as aerial imaging and AI-based extrapolations may offer supplementary insights, they cannot replace transparent, independently replicable scientific methods required for the production of official estimates.

Expert Opinions
Former Stats SA chief Pali Lehohla echoed Molayi’s comments, refusing to accept Fibretime’s numbers at face value. Lehohla demanded data and method before he could treat the claim as a serious challenge to the official series. He noted that Fibretime’s count of structures on the ground should match Stats SA’s count, and that the company’s estimate of the population should be based on a clear and transparent method. Lehohla also acknowledged the potential benefits of new technologies such as AI and aerial imaging, but emphasized that they cannot replace the full set of parameters needed for a population estimate.

Implications and Challenges
The disagreement over official statistics is not the first, with independent experts and research bodies having questioned aspects of the 2022 census and its post-enumeration adjustments. The Medical Research Council and academic commentators have described serious inconsistencies and raised caution in using census outputs for fine-grained planning. The challenge to official statistics also comes at a time when the national statistics agency is facing significant challenges, including high vacancy rates and a shrinking operational budget. The Statistics Council, a 25-member panel that signs off on national statistics, has warned that these challenges are undermining the agency’s functioning.

Conclusion and Future Directions
In conclusion, the disagreement between Stats SA and Fibretime highlights the importance of accurate and reliable statistical methods in estimating population figures. While innovative technologies such as aerial imaging and AI-based extrapolations may offer supplementary insights, they cannot replace traditional statistical methods. Stats SA’s insistence on transparent and replicable methods is essential for ensuring the accuracy and reliability of official statistics. As the agency faces significant challenges, it is essential that it receives the necessary support and resources to continue producing high-quality statistics that can inform economic and fiscal decision-making. Ultimately, the accuracy of population estimates has significant implications for the country’s development and planning, and it is essential that all stakeholders work together to ensure that the most accurate and reliable methods are used.