Key Takeaways:
- A coastal storm is expected to bring snow to Massachusetts on Tuesday, with the interior of the state likely to receive plowable snow
- The shoreline will experience a mix of rain and wet flakes, with the rain/snow line setting up around the Route 44 corridor
- The highest risk for plowable snow is across central and western Massachusetts, including the Berkshires, Worcester County, and much of Middlesex County
- Vermont and New Hampshire will also receive heavier snow due to colder air and higher elevations
- The Boston area can expect a light, wet coating to a couple of inches of snow, with the possibility of several inches of snow north and west of the city
Introduction to the Storm
The first widespread snow of the season is expected to hit Massachusetts on Tuesday, with a coastal storm bringing snow to the interior of the state and a mix of rain and wet flakes to the shoreline. The cold air will be deep enough to support plowable snow in areas away from the ocean, but coastal communities will be on the warm edge of the storm. As a result, travel impacts are possible, and WBZ-TV has issued a Next Weather Alert. The storm is not expected to be a blockbuster, but it is organized enough to deliver accumulating snow to a large portion of the state.
Snowfall Predictions
The latest guidance shows that the highest risk for plowable snow is across central and western Massachusetts, including the Berkshires, Worcester County, and much of Middlesex County. Vermont and New Hampshire will also be in line for heavier snow thanks to colder air and higher elevations. The battle zone between snow and rain will be around the Route 44 corridor, where the rain/snow line will set up. Northwest of this corridor, a thump of heavy, wet snow is likely to occur, with the area around Interstate 95 between Boston and Providence being particularly affected.
Coastal Communities
Along the immediate coastline, including the South Shore and southeastern Massachusetts, the lowest risk for accumulation remains in place. Warmer air near the ocean means that these locations will see mainly rain. The latest Futurecast shows a sharp rain and snow line early on Tuesday, with steady snow inland and a messy mix near the coast. This storm also has a narrow corridor where snow bands may briefly intensify, which will be closely watched as a shift of even 20 or 30 miles could change who sees the steadiest snow.
Snowfall Possibilities
Instead of focusing on exact totals, the range graphics offer a clear picture of what is possible and where confidence is highest. In the Boston area, the lower limit is essentially a cold rain, while the most likely outcome is a light, wet coating to a couple of inches of snow. The upper limit would require colder air to enter the picture a little earlier, changing that rain over to snow quicker. North and west of Boston, where confidence is higher, several inches of snow are possible, with the upper limit potentially achievable in the highest elevations of Worcester County, generally over 1,000 feet elevation.
Historical Context
This has been another quiet lead-up to winter, with Worcester managing only a dusting in November. Boston is still waiting for a storm that truly announces the season. The city’s last six-inch or greater snowstorm occurred on February 25, 2022, when 8.5 inches fell at Logan Airport. This puts the current streak at 1,374 days and counting. The recent trend tells the same story, with the last three winters combined producing 50.3 inches of snow, only slightly above what an average single winter brings. A typical Boston winter is 48.7 inches, and the city has not seen a true heavyweight storm in years.
Conclusion
Tuesday’s storm will not be historic, but it is a meaningful step toward winter. Inland communities have the best chance for shovel-worthy snow, while coastal locations will stay mostly rainy. For snow lovers and plow drivers, this may be the first event that finally feels like the season is waking up. The WBZ-TV weather team is predicting 55 to 65 inches of snow in Boston this winter and 75 to 85 inches in Worcester. While this storm is not expected to be a major event, it is an important step toward a winter that is expected to bring significant snowfall to the region.
