Key Takeaways:
- The United States under President Donald Trump has led a sustained assault on the foundations of the global order, flouting international law and withdrawing from multilateral bodies.
- The concept of the "world minus one" describes a new world order where the United States is absent or hostile to international cooperation.
- Despite the US withdrawal, multilateral institutions and agreements can survive and even thrive without US leadership.
- Rising powers such as China, India, and the EU are evolving in response to Trump’s assault and are taking steps to preserve global cooperation and free trade.
- The United Nations remains a key site for cooperation, and its survival depends on its ability to adapt and reform in response to changing global circumstances.
Introduction to the World Minus One
The United States, under the leadership of President Donald Trump, has embarked on a mission to reshape the world order. However, this approach has been marked by a mix of isolationism and aggrandizement, with Trump being contemptuous of multilateralism and fixated on the raw exercise of power. This has led to a situation where the United States is absent from, or even hostile towards, the existing international order. The concept of the "world minus one" has taken on new significance, describing a world where the United States is no longer a champion of international cooperation.
The History of International Relations
The history of international relations tells a different story than the one often assumed. A globally dominant hegemon is not necessary for economic openness and political cooperation to prevail. Once formed, international institutions are sticky, and they exist not because of collective altruism but because they serve the core interests of their members. The history of the 20th century shows that some of the most fundamental elements of the current international order emerged without the backing of any hegemon. For example, decolonization and racial equality became global norms despite initial resistance from the United States.
Surviving Without US Leadership
The idea that multilateral institutions and agreements cannot survive without US leadership is a myth. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the Paris Agreement on climate change, and the International Criminal Court (ICC) are examples of institutions that have survived and even thrived despite US withdrawal or non-compliance. In fact, the history of international relations shows that cooperation can survive even when a hegemon abstains, withdraws, or opposes cooperation among others.
Rising Powers and Multilateral Institutions
Rising powers such as China, India, and the EU are evolving in response to Trump’s assault on the global order. They are taking steps to preserve global cooperation and free trade, and are using multilateral forums such as BRICS, the G-20, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) to do so. The EU has launched its Global Gateway plan, which combines infrastructure, energy, and climate protection projects to help counter China’s influence around the world. India is rapidly expanding and institutionalizing its own trade ties, including negotiations to enhance its existing trade agreements with ASEAN and Japan.
The Future of the World Minus One
The future of the world minus one moment depends on both US domestic politics and external pressures. If the United States finally shakes off Trumpism, the world will have moved on, and Washington will have to rejoin the international order as a weaker entity on more equal terms. The United Nations will have to adapt and reform to survive, and rising powers will continue to play a crucial role in shaping the new world order. The world will be more multiplex, with Washington living in a more broadly decentralized system shaped less by US power or purpose than by that of other great and middle powers enmeshed in a web of economic and security ties.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the world minus one moment has significant implications for the future of global cooperation and international relations. The United States’ withdrawal from multilateral institutions and agreements has created a power vacuum that rising powers are filling. The concept of the world minus one describes a new world order where the United States is absent or hostile to international cooperation. However, this does not mean that multilateral institutions and agreements cannot survive or thrive without US leadership. In fact, the history of international relations shows that cooperation can survive even when a hegemon abstains, withdraws, or opposes cooperation among others. The future of the world minus one moment depends on both US domestic politics and external pressures, and the world will have to adapt to a new reality where the United States is no longer the dominant power.
