Key Takeaways
- Queensland is expected to experience a wet and stormy Christmas with widespread storm activity across the state over the next week
- Severe thunderstorms are possible in a broad band from the state’s north-west to south-east, with heavy rainfall, damaging wind gusts, and potential hail
- Rainfall totals could reach 100 millimeters close to the Gulf coastline, with lower totals expected in other areas
- The weather bureau is forecasting the unsettled weather to last throughout the Christmas week and begin to ease fully in the new year
- Hail is expected to be more of a concern for New South Wales than Queensland, but the frequency of "giant" hail and the number of hail days in a season could increase substantially for multiple Australian cities as the climate warms
Introduction to the Stormy Forecast
Queensland is predicted to have a wet, stormy Christmas, with the weather bureau forecasting widespread storm activity across the state over the next week. Storms are expected to set in from today, bringing heavy rainfall, damaging wind gusts, and the potential for more hail. Senior forecaster Rosa Hoff said that there was "quite a large area" in which severe thunderstorms were possible today, with the severity really being in a diagonal swathe extending from the Northern Territory border all the way down to the far south-east.
Causes of the Stormy Weather
The trough in western Queensland is combining with moisture coming from the south, resulting in a great potential for thunderstorm activity inland, especially to produce heavy rainfall. Ms. Hoff explained that plenty of moisture is up in the air, and what’s sitting up there has a good chance of coming down. This combination of factors is expected to lead to severe storms lashing large parts of the state over the next week. The weather bureau is forecasting the unsettled weather to last throughout the Christmas week and begin to ease fully in the new year.
Rainfall and Storm Expectations
Rainfall totals could reach 100 millimeters close to the Gulf coastline, but totals would likely be less in other areas. Ms. Hoff said that it’s much more likely that storms through western Queensland could produce 30 to 60 millimeters, and closer to Brisbane, those totals are a lot lower. The chances are that storms are likely to produce 20 to 40 millimeters, but it will depend on the duration of those storms. Severe storms are possible in a broad band from the state’s north-west to south-east, with the weather bureau forecasting the unsettled weather to last throughout the Christmas week.
Christmas Day Forecast
Christmas Day is expected to be no exception to the stormy forecast. At this stage, the Christmas forecast does come with a few rumbles of thunder, according to Ms. Hoff. Despite the stormy outlook, hail is expected to be more of a concern for New South Wales than Queensland. The chance of severe thunderstorms on Christmas Day is at this stage, a little bit more confined to north-western parts of the state. If a severe thunderstorm develops, particularly around the Mt. Isa region and adjacent districts, there could be a risk of heavy rainfall with that.
Climate Change and Hail Threat
The frequency of "giant" hail and the number of hail days in a season could increase substantially for multiple Australian cities as the climate warms, according to a new study. This is a concerning trend, but at this stage, it’s less likely closer to the Brisbane border. The study’s findings suggest that climate change could lead to more frequent and severe hail storms in the future. However, for now, the focus is on the immediate stormy forecast for Queensland.
Heatwave Warnings
Heatwave warnings remain in place across parts of the south, with severe heatwave warnings active for the Darling Downs and the Granite Belt, and parts of Brisbane. That’s expected to regulate over the next few days as temperatures return to more normal levels. The good news is that as we approach Christmas, we will see some of these conditions ease back on Wednesday and Thursday, according to Ms. Hoff. While they’re likely to be a splash on the warm side, we’ll see a return below heatwave conditions.
Regional Variations in Weather
In some places, though, the Christmas weather could be a bit more palatable. If you’re down in the state’s south-west, you might be treated to some clearer skies, according to Ms. Hoff. You’ll be the envy of many, I’m sure. The regional variations in weather highlight the complexity of the stormy forecast, with different areas experiencing different conditions. As the weather bureau continues to monitor the situation, it’s essential for residents to stay informed and up-to-date with the latest forecast.
