Key Takeaways
- Protests can be an effective way to bring about change, with historical examples including the Women’s March, the Civil Rights Movement, and the LGBTQ+ rights movement.
- Research shows that protests can affect elections, with higher turnout in protests leading to positive shifts in votes for Democratic candidates.
- Nonviolence is a key strategy for effective protesting, as it can help to sway public opinion and create a sympathetic movement.
- Protests can also foster lifelong civic engagement, building coalitions and networks that can be called upon for future fights.
- Protesting can improve emotional wellbeing and provide a sense of community and agency for participants.
Introduction to Protest Effectiveness
Trump’s first and second terms have been marked by huge protests, from the 2017 Women’s March to the protests for racial justice after George Floyd’s murder, to this year’s No Kings demonstrations. But how effective is this type of collective action? According to historians and political scientists who study protest, very. From emancipation to women’s suffrage, from civil rights to Black Lives Matter, mass movement has shaped the arc of American history. Protest has led to the passage of legislation that gave women the right to vote, banned segregation, and legalized same-sex marriage. It has also sparked cultural shifts in how Americans perceive things like bodily autonomy, economic inequality, and racial bias.
The Impact of Protests on Elections
Protests can affect elections, with research showing that regions with higher protest turnout saw positive shifts in votes for Democratic candidates at the county level. The Women’s March, for example, incited tangible change, directly prompting an unprecedented surge in female candidates for elected office. During the 2018 midterms, more than 500 women ran in congressional races, nearly doubling numbers from 2016. The protest also changed electoral results, with voters more likely to support women and candidates of color due to the empowering effect of the protest. This trend can be seen on the right as well, with localities that saw greater participation during the 2009 Tea Party protests also witnessing more Republican support during the 2010 midterms.
The 3.5% Rule and Protest Effectiveness
The often-cited 3.5% rule, developed by political scientists Erica Chenoweth and Maria Stephan, suggests that if 3.5% of a population protests against a regime, the regime will fail. While this rule has seen renewed interest in leftist circles, Chenoweth notes that the number refers to peak, not cumulative participation, and that 3.5% is not absolute. Even non-violent campaigns can succeed with less participation, according to her 2020 update to the rule. The 3.5% rule has been applied to various protests, including the No Kings protests, which have attracted historic numbers.
Fostering Lifelong Civic Engagement
Momentum begins with a first protest, research shows. Citizens who participate in one demonstration are more likely to take part in another. For example, protesters who took part in the 1964 Freedom Summer were more likely to engage in activism over the course of their lifespans than those who intended to join the protest but ultimately did not. Protests can build coalitions and networks that can be called upon for future fights, which can be especially critical in smaller towns and close-knit communities where people may fear voicing an opinion that goes against the grain.
The Importance of Nonviolence
One protesting strategy has been shown time and again to be most effective in the US: nonviolence. The seminal example of this is the civil rights movement, which showed "extreme discipline" when it came to maintaining nonviolent tactics. Nonviolent protests can help to sway public opinion and create a sympathetic movement, while violent protests tend to lose the support of the public. The civil rights movement’s ability to elicit violence from its opponents, such as in 1965 when armed police violently attacked peaceful protesters crossing the Edmund Pettus Bridge in Selma, Alabama, only strengthened public support for the cause.
Protests and Emotional Wellbeing
While legislative shifts and movement-building are important markers of impact, another way to gauge success is by considering how a demonstration affects the lives of its participants. Protesting can improve emotional wellbeing, with research showing that people who were part of the Act Up movement continued to feel validated years later having participated in such an impactful movement. Protests can provide a sense of community and agency for participants, which is key since protests rarely incite policy or cultural changes overnight. Often, their rates of impact are much more gradual, and looking at them through a historical lens can be a helpful way to appreciate the tangible effect of taking to the streets.
Conclusion
Protests have been a powerful tool for bringing about change throughout American history. From the Women’s March to the Civil Rights Movement, protests have led to the passage of legislation and sparked cultural shifts in how Americans perceive various issues. Research shows that protests can affect elections, foster lifelong civic engagement, and improve emotional wellbeing. Nonviolence is a key strategy for effective protesting, and protests can provide a sense of community and agency for participants. As the US continues to grapple with various social and political issues, the effectiveness of protests will likely remain an important topic of discussion and research.
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