North American Trade and Provincial Developments in 2025

Key Takeaways

• A tariff exemption for Canada under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) is at risk in 2026 due to potential concessions demanded by the U.S.
• Canada’s economy could face long-term scarring if trade talks don’t go in Ottawa’s favor and the CUSMA exemption ends next year.
• A U.S.-based carbon capture startup has begun an early engineering and design study for a commercial-scale project in Alberta’s oilsands, citing Canada’s supportive policies and professional expertise.
• Thousands of homes and businesses in the Atlantic region were left without power after high winds over the weekend, with power being restored gradually.
• Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew plans to target "differential pricing" for groceries in the new year, aiming to control prices and crack down on the practice of charging different prices for the same product.
• British Columbia Premier David Eby has stated that he is not seeking an early election in 2026, but is prepared for one if the Opposition blocks legislation to grow the economy and improve services.

Introduction to Current Events

The year 2025 has been a significant one for Canada, with various events and developments shaping the country’s economy, politics, and environment. One of the major stories of the year has been the tariff exemption for Canada under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). This exemption has been crucial for Canada’s economy, allowing the vast majority of its exports to enter the U.S. duty-free. However, with the agreement up for review in 2026, there are concerns that this exemption may be at risk. U.S. President Donald Trump has already threatened to walk away from the agreement unless Canada and Mexico make certain concessions, putting Canada’s tariff exemption in jeopardy.

Trade and Economy

The potential loss of the tariff exemption could have severe consequences for Canada’s economy. According to Tony Stillo with Oxford Economics, Canada would face long-term economic scarring if trade talks don’t go in Ottawa’s favor and the CUSMA exemption ends next year. This could lead to significant job losses and economic instability, particularly in industries such as steel and aluminum. International trade lawyer William Pellerin has also warned that the exemption is at risk, stating that Canada’s compliance with CUSMA has allowed its exports to enter the U.S. duty-free, but this could change if the agreement is renegotiated.

Carbon Capture Technology

In a positive development, a U.S.-based carbon capture startup has begun an early engineering and design study for a commercial-scale project in Alberta’s oilsands. Mantel Capture, which makes equipment that can be bolted onto industrial plants to capture carbon dioxide emissions, believes that Canada ticks many of the boxes needed to bring this technology into widespread use. CEO Cameron Halliday cites Canada’s supportive policies and professional expertise as key factors in the company’s decision to invest in the country. This development has the potential to reduce emissions and support Canada’s transition to a low-carbon economy.

Power Outages and Natural Disasters

Thousands of homes and businesses in the Atlantic region were left without power after high winds over the weekend, with power being restored gradually. The storm caused significant damage and disruption, with over 186,000 customers in Nova Scotia and 54,000 in New Brunswick affected. Environment Canada had issued weather warnings for all of the Atlantic provinces, forecasting gusts of up to 100 kilometers per hour in some areas. The storm highlights the importance of investing in infrastructure and preparing for natural disasters, which are becoming increasingly frequent and severe due to climate change.

Grocery Prices and Differential Pricing

Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew has announced plans to target "differential pricing" for groceries in the new year, aiming to control prices and crack down on the practice of charging different prices for the same product. The premier believes that this practice is unfair and can disproportionately affect certain demographics, such as low-income households. The Retail Council of Canada, which represents major grocers, has stated that its members offer prices that are available to all customers, but there may be discounts for people enrolled in membership programs. Kinew’s government is also looking at expanding its control over the price of milk, as it already sets a wholesale price and a maximum retail price for one-litre containers.

British Columbia Politics

British Columbia Premier David Eby has stated that he is not seeking an early election in 2026, but is prepared for one if the Opposition blocks legislation to grow the economy and improve services. The premier believes that voters in British Columbia do not want an election at this time, and his government is focused on passing important legislation. However, the turmoil in the B.C. Conservative Opposition, which saw John Rustad resign as party leader, has stirred talk of an early election. Eby’s government is ready for an election if necessary, having been fundraising and is debt-free. The premier is firm that his government will not be swayed by the "chaos" in the Conservative party, which he believes has been corrosive in undermining public trust.