Key Takeaways:
- High confidence in snow and stickage north of Baltimore and chilly rain and wet roads for Southern Maryland and most of Delmarva.
- Wild card is metro Baltimore and I-95, where the warm impact of lower elevations and wind off the water may conflict with colder inland hills.
- Probability of 1” or more of snow is 60% according to the European Model and 30% according to the Short Range Ensemble.
- Not all snow that falls will stick, due to surface temperature being slightly above freezing in the city and around I-95.
- Arrival of snow before sunrise may allow for a burst of heavier intensity to lay and stay before any solar energy can influence.
Introduction to the Weather Report
This report provides a more in-depth analysis of the morning weather outlook, based on the most recent full model run overnight. New data is being generated, and the report will be updated accordingly. The high confidence in snow and stickage north of Baltimore and chilly rain and wet roads for Southern Maryland and most of Delmarva is due to the colder trend with the European Model and its southern track of Low Pressure. However, the blend of short-range models still shows lower snow expectations, and this report will explore the model expectations and totals.
Model Expectations and Totals
The European Model has trended colder and increased snow expectations into Central Maryland, with a 60% probability of 1” or more of snow. In contrast, the Short Range Ensemble shows a 30% probability. The National Weather Service snow forecast includes some accumulation in Baltimore, reflecting the confidence in this trend. However, it is essential to consider the complications of snow falling and melting, which may limit totals. The arrival of snow before sunrise may allow for a burst of heavier intensity to lay and stay before any solar energy can influence.
Factors Affecting Snowfall
Several factors may conflict and play a role in the snowfall, including the surface temperature being slightly above freezing in the city and around I-95. The timing of the arrival before sunrise may allow for a burst of heavier intensity to lay and stay before any solar energy can influence. The snow burst that occurred in the morning is a signal that the modeling, both short-term and global deterministic runs, is still imperfect. The ECMWF Model Animation shows the burst of snow then mix across the Mid Atlantic, with a Moderate Snow Event expected to dump higher totals across the suburbs of New York and into Southern New England.
Model Comparisons
The ECMWF Model compares to the short-range models, including the HRRR Model and the NAM 3Km Model. The HRRR Model shows the snow and mix entering metro Baltimore and Southern PA at 6 AM, while the NAM 3Km Model is slower and less reliable. The temperatures at 6 AM are crucial, with the surface air below freezing consistently north and west of Baltimore. The National Blend of Models shows the surface temperature forecast, with the inland hills holding the cold longer.
Snowfall Totals
The snowfall totals are estimated using the Kuchera Method, which accounts for compacting and melting. However, it is essential to consider that not all snow that falls will stick. The ECMWF Model and the National Weather Service call show similar totals, while the GFS Model has lower totals locally but higher with the surge from the Poconos to metro New York. The Canadian GEM Model is the warmest with the least amount of snow.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the report provides a detailed analysis of the weather outlook, considering the complications of snow falling and melting. The high confidence in snow and stickage north of Baltimore and chilly rain and wet roads for Southern Maryland and most of Delmarva is based on the colder trend with the European Model and its southern track of Low Pressure. However, it is essential to consider the factors affecting snowfall, including the surface temperature and the timing of the arrival. The report will be updated with new data, and a closer, more detailed map will be provided in the next report.
