Key Takeaways
- Melbourne is expected to experience a cool Christmas Day with a forecasted top of 17 degrees Celsius and possible showers.
- This will be the fourth-coldest Christmas Day since temperature records began in 1855.
- The city’s average Christmas Day temperature is 25.6 degrees, but the weather can be unpredictable and varies greatly from year to year.
- The rest of Victoria can expect dry conditions on Christmas Day, with some areas experiencing light showers and others enjoying mostly sunny skies.
- The cool start to summer is due to a belt of high pressure being further north than usual, allowing cold fronts to move up from the Southern Ocean.
Introduction to Melbourne’s Christmas Weather
When it comes to Christmas Day, Melburnians generally split into two groups: those who like cool and comfortable weather for a warm Christmas lunch, and those who are hanging out for a summer scorcher and a lazy afternoon by the pool. This year, it’s looking more like the former, with a breezy, cloudy top of just 17 degrees Celsius forecast for the big day, and a possible shower as well. This unusual weather pattern has some Melburnians wondering if this is a typical Christmas Day in the city.
Unusual Cool Christmas Days in Melbourne
There’s no doubt about it — Christmas this year will be on the chilly side. If the forecast holds, it will be Melbourne’s fourth-coldest Christmas Day since temperature records began in 1855. To put this into perspective, Melbourne’s hottest Christmas Day was in 1907, when the city reached a scorching 40.7C. On the other hand, the coldest Christmas Day was in 2006, when Melbourne only reached 15.4C, with showers and wintry hail, and even a white Christmas in the state’s alpine areas. This highlights the unpredictability of Melbourne’s Christmas Day weather.
Christmas Day Weather Across Victoria
Despite the cool-to-mild conditions in Melbourne, the rest of Victoria can expect dry conditions on Christmas Day. Some areas south of the Great Dividing Range could see the odd light shower on a mostly grey sky day, but across the northern plains, it will be mostly sunny. Temperatures will climb into the 20s further north, topping out at around 26C or 27C degrees along the Murray River. This variation in weather patterns across the state is not uncommon and is influenced by the geography and climate of the region.
The Cause of the Cool Start to Summer
December is always a bit of a rollercoaster in Victoria, as heat builds over the interior at this time of year, battling against the much cooler air mass still lying over the Southern Ocean. The belt of high pressure that usually sits to the south at this time of year has been much further north than normal, allowing cold front after cold front to move up from the Southern Ocean, bringing renewed pulses of polar air to south-east Australia. These pulses are even colder than usual due to colder-than-normal sea surface temperatures to the south, which add extra bite to the chilly south-westerly winds as the air mass passes over on its way towards Victoria.
Outlook After Christmas
The good news is that the cooler weather will mostly be behind us once we pass the holiday period. It’s cool again for Boxing Day, but after that, we’ll swing back toward some warm to hot days ahead of the new year. The Bureau of Meteorology’s current long-term outlook suggests around a 50 to 70 per cent chance of above-average days in the first half of January, and a similar chance of drier-than-normal conditions for parts of Victoria. This means that if warm summer weather is your thing, you can look forward to rocking the floaties and pool noodles after Christmas.
Conclusion and Final Thoughts
In conclusion, Melbourne’s Christmas Day weather is expected to be cool and cloudy, with a forecasted top of 17 degrees Celsius and possible showers. While this may be a departure from the usual warm summer weather, it’s not uncommon for Melbourne to experience cool Christmas Days. The rest of Victoria can expect dry conditions, with some areas experiencing light showers and others enjoying mostly sunny skies. As we look ahead to the new year, the outlook is promising, with a chance of above-average days and drier-than-normal conditions. Whether you prefer cool and comfortable weather or a summer scorcher, there’s something for everyone in Melbourne’s unpredictable Christmas weather.
