Key Takeaways
- Labour’s current unpopularity is unprecedented, with support for the party almost halving since the 2024 general election.
- The public’s negative sentiment towards the government is not solely due to economic conditions, which have been mediocre but not disastrous.
- Past Labour governments have weathered worse economic storms without suffering such a significant drop in public support.
- The government’s lack of a clear plan, combined with factors such as immigration and asylum, may be contributing to its unpopularity.
- There is no guarantee that voters will reassess their view of Labour even if the economy improves in 2026.
Introduction to Labour’s Unpopularity
The Labour government is currently facing an unprecedented level of unpopularity, with opinion polls suggesting that support for the party has almost halved since the 2024 general election. This decline in popularity is not solely due to economic conditions, which have been mediocre but not disastrous. In fact, the economy has been growing, albeit slowly, and living standards have been rising due to wage growth outpacing inflation. However, this has not translated to increased support for the government, which is a remarkable phenomenon.
Economic Conditions and Public Sentiment
The UK economy has not been performing badly, but it has not been doing exceptionally well either. Growth has slowed since the start of 2025, and unemployment has edged up to 5.1%. However, this is still a long way from the levels seen in the deep recessions of the early 1980s and early 1990s. Moreover, for those in work, living standards have been rising, which is normally a boon for governments. Yet, this has not been the case for the current Labour government, which is facing unprecedented levels of unpopularity. This suggests that there are other factors at play beyond just economic conditions.
Historical Context and Comparison
Past Labour governments have faced much worse economic conditions without suffering such a significant drop in public support. For example, in 1947, Clement Attlee’s administration faced fuel shortages, a sterling crisis, and rationing imposed during the second world war. In 1975, inflation hit a postwar peak of 25%, leading to a run on the pound and spending cuts imposed by the International Monetary Fund. More recently, in 2008, the near-collapse of the banks during the global financial crisis led to the economy shrinking for more than a year. However, in each of these cases, the government was able to recover and maintain public support. This is not the case for the current Labour government.
Causes of Unpopularity and Potential Consequences
The causes of Labour’s unpopularity are likely to be complex and multifaceted. Almost certainly, it is a combination of factors, including life being genuinely tough for many people, especially the young, and the public’s patience wearing thin after a decade-and-a-half of flatlining living standards. Additionally, Labour’s lack of a clear plan and issues such as immigration and asylum may be influencing voters more than they once did. The consequences of this unpopularity could be severe, with the government facing a potentially catastrophic recession if it is unable to turn things around. The Bank of England’s slow response to cutting interest rates and the Treasury’s policy errors have not helped, and the government’s decision to raise employers’ national insurance contributions has made it more expensive to hire workers.
Conclusion and Future Prospects
The Labour government is facing an unprecedented level of unpopularity, and it is far from clear why this is the case. While the economy has not been performing badly, it has not been doing exceptionally well either. The government’s lack of a clear plan and issues such as immigration and asylum may be contributing to its unpopularity. The consequences of this unpopularity could be severe, with the government facing a potentially catastrophic recession if it is unable to turn things around. The next election could be as far away as the summer of 2029, but the government cannot afford to be complacent. It needs to take urgent action to address the issues facing the country and to regain public trust. Otherwise, it risks being ousted from power and facing a long period in opposition.
