Key Takeaways:
- Iran’s ongoing protests began in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar on December 28, 2025, and have since spread to over 25 provinces, with more than 6,000 protesters reportedly killed.
- The protests have evolved to include minority groups, such as Kurds, Azeris, and Baluch, who are seeking greater inclusion and rights.
- The Iranian government’s response to the protests has been violent, with a history of repression and marginalization of ethnic minority groups.
- The protests have exposed a fundamental divide over what political change means and for whom, with different regions and communities having different demands and expectations.
- A durable political order in Iran cannot be built on centralized power dominated by a single ethnic identity, and any future transition must incorporate the demands of all regions and communities.
Introduction to the Protests
When Iran’s ongoing protests began in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar on December 28, 2025, the government initially treated them as manageable and temporary. Bazaar merchants have historically been among the most conservative social groups in Iran, deeply embedded in the state’s economic structure and closely connected to political authority. Within the Iranian government itself, there was apparent confidence that their protests were not revolutionary in nature but transactional – a short-lived pressure campaign aimed at stabilizing the collapsing currency and curbing inflation that directly threatened merchants’ livelihoods. However, the protests soon spread to over 25 provinces and developed into a nationwide challenge to the government’s survival, met by a violent crackdown in which more than 6,000 protesters have reportedly been killed.
The Role of Ethnic Minority Groups
Iran is a country of about 93 million people whose modern state was built around a centralized national identity rather than ethnic pluralism. However, the country has a large and politically significant ethnic minority population, with 24% of the country identifying as Azeri, 8-17% as Kurdish, and 3% and 2% as Arab and Baluch, respectively. Since the Pahlavi monarchy’s nation-building project began in 1925, successive governments, both monarchical and then the Islamic Republic, have treated ethnic diversity as a security challenge and repeatedly suppressed demands for political inclusion, language rights, and local governance. The role of Iran’s ethnic minority groups in the current protests has evolved, with Kurdish involvement beginning in the small city of Malekshahi in Ilam province on January 3, and subsequent protests erupting in Ilam and Kermanshah provinces over economic deprivation and political discrimination.
A Strategic Approach to Protest
Shiite Kurdish communities in Ilam and Kermanshah continue to experience exclusion rooted in their Kurdish identity, despite sharing a Shiite identity with Iran’s ruling establishment in Tehran. Following the killing of protesters in Ilam and Kermanshah, Kurdish political parties issued a joint statement calling for a region-wide strike, rather than protests, in an effort to demonstrate solidarity while reducing the risk of large-scale violence and another massacre. The result was decisive, with nearly all Kurdish cities shutting down. Baluchestan, in Iran’s southeast, followed Kurdistan a day after, with protests driven by long-standing ethnic and religious marginalization. Iranian Azerbaijan, an area in the country’s northwest, joined later and more cautiously, reflecting Azerbaijanis’ current favorable position within Iran’s political, military, and economic institutions.
A History of Repression
Ethnically based political movements emerged across Iran immediately after the 1979 revolution, which many minority groups had supported in hopes of greater inclusion and rights. However, these movements were quickly suppressed as the Islamic Republic crushed uprisings across Iranian Azerbaijan, Baluchestan, Kh