Key Takeaways
- Ongoing nationwide protests in Iran have resulted in over 500 deaths and more than 10,600 arrests, according to human rights groups.
- The Iranian government has threatened retaliation against Israel and US bases if the US intervenes on behalf of protesters.
- The US President has warned Iranian leaders against using force against demonstrators and has stated that the US is "ready to help".
- Protests have also taken place in countries such as Australia, with demonstrators calling for regime change and condemning the killing of protesters in Iran.
- The international community, including the Australian government, has condemned the use of violence and intimidation by the Iranian regime.
Introduction to the Protests
The situation in Iran continues to deteriorate, with ongoing nationwide protests resulting in a significant loss of life and widespread arrests. According to the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), over 490 protesters and 48 security personnel have been killed, with more than 10,600 people arrested. The Europe-based Hangaw organization has also been working to verify the number of deaths, with at least 60 Iranians confirmed to have been killed, including women and children.
Government Response and Threats
The Iranian government has responded to the protests with force, and has threatened retaliation against Israel and US bases if the US intervenes on behalf of protesters. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned the US against "a miscalculation", stating that in the event of an attack on Iran, the occupied territories (Israel) as well as all US bases and ships would be considered legitimate targets. The Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian, has also accused Israel and the US of masterminding destabilization in the country.
International Response
The US President has warned Iranian leaders against using force against demonstrators, and has stated that the US is "ready to help". The US is considering various options for intervention, including missile strikes, cyber attacks, and further economic sanctions. The international community, including the Australian government, has condemned the use of violence and intimidation by the Iranian regime. Foreign Minister Penny Wong has issued a joint statement with Canada and the EU, condemning the killings and use of violence, and calling for the Iranian government to respect the rights of its citizens.
Protests in Other Countries
Protests have also taken place in countries such as Australia, with demonstrators calling for regime change and condemning the killing of protesters in Iran. Hundreds of people gathered in Sydney’s Town Hall, urging Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to condemn the killing of protesters in Iran. The protesters are calling for the Australian government to take a stronger stance against the Iranian regime, with some demanding that the government cut all ties with the Islamic regime.
Analysis and Speculation
The scale of the protests in Iran is fuelling speculation as to whether the hardline Islamic regime, which has been in power for almost 47 years, could be about to topple. However, not all analysts are convinced that the regime is on the verge of collapse. Danny Citrinowicz, a senior fellow at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, believes that the regime has a concrete base of support, and that it would be very hard to topple. He suggests that a change within the regime is more likely than a complete overthrow.
Potential for Miscalculation
The situation in Iran is highly volatile, and there is a significant risk of miscalculation by the US or the Iranian regime. The US President’s rhetoric has taken a chilling turn, with repeated pledges to support the protesters if they are attacked by the Iranian regime. The options on the table for US intervention include everything from missile strikes to cyber attacks or further economic sanctions. However, as Mr. Citrinowicz notes, "miscalculation can happen, and it will be very hard to find some sort of a sweet spot that will enable Trump to say ‘I helped the demonstrators’ without deteriorating into full-scale war." The dilemma in Washington is indeed huge, and the international community will be watching the situation in Iran with bated breath.