Key Takeaways:
- The 2026 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) reduces funding for the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) if the Iraqi government does not take credible steps to reduce the operational capacity of Iranian-backed militias.
- The NDAA conditions include disarming and reintegrating Iranian-backed militias, strengthening the authority of the Iraqi prime minister, and investigating and holding accountable militia members who attack US or Iraqi personnel.
- Iranian-backed militias may attempt to circumvent these conditions by establishing facade groups and obfuscating their command and control structures.
- The US is attempting to prevent the formation of an extremely pro-Iran government in Iraq and has conveyed that it will refuse to engage with senior security officials affiliated with Iranian-backed militias.
- Iran has reconstituted its ballistic missile stockpile to around 2,000 missiles, which is a significant increase from previous estimates.
- The Southern Transitional Council (STC) in Yemen is emphasizing its intent to establish an independent state and is consolidating control on the ground in eastern Yemen.
- Turkey may be preparing for potential offensive operations in northeastern Syria, with Turkish and Syrian defense officials discussing military cooperation and the Turkish government outlining political justifications for a joint operation against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Introduction to the 2026 NDAA
The 2026 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) has significant implications for the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and the Iranian-backed militias operating in Iraq. The NDAA reduces funding for the ISF unless the Iraqi government takes credible steps to reduce the operational capacity of Iranian-backed militias. These conditions include disarming and reintegrating Iranian-backed militias, strengthening the authority of the Iraqi prime minister, and investigating and holding accountable militia members who attack US or Iraqi personnel. The NDAA aims to decrease the ability of Iranian-backed militias to operate in pursuit of Iranian objectives, unless the Iraqi government is extremely pro-Iranian and willing to lose US security funding.
Circumventing the NDAA Conditions
Iranian-backed militias may attempt to circumvent the NDAA conditions by establishing facade groups and obfuscating their command and control structures. They could create nominally new Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) brigades while claiming that their covert elements had been disarmed, demobilized, and reintegrated. The militias could also obfuscate their distortion of the official chain of command by claiming that they follow the chain of command while receiving orders through extralegal channels. Additionally, they could use their pervasive political and judicial influence to "arrest" commanders and fighters before quietly releasing them at a later date.
US Pressure on the Iraqi Government
The US is attempting to prevent the formation of an extremely pro-Iran government in Iraq and has conveyed that it will refuse to engage with senior security officials affiliated with Iranian-backed militias. This pressure may lead to a more balanced government in Iraq, one that is less inclined to support Iranian-backed militias. The US is also attempting to strengthen its leverage over the Iraqi government, which could lead to a decrease in the freedom of maneuver for Iranian-backed militias.
Iran’s Reconstituted Ballistic Missile Stockpile
Iran has reconstituted its ballistic missile stockpile to around 2,000 missiles, which is a significant increase from previous estimates. This rapid reconstitution indicates that Israel either failed to destroy all of Iran’s planetary mixers or that Iran has acquired or built new planetary mixers used to produce solid fuel ballistic missiles. The rebuilt ballistic missile program is considered an unacceptable threat by Israel, which may lead to further conflict in the region.
The Southern Transitional Council in Yemen
The Southern Transitional Council (STC) in Yemen is emphasizing its intent to establish an independent state and is consolidating control on the ground in eastern Yemen. The STC has launched an offensive in southern Yemen, successfully extending its presence to all eight governorates in southern Yemen. The STC is continuing to consolidate administrative control and establish new military units in eastern Yemen, which could lead to a formal declaration of independence.
Turkey’s Potential Offensive in Northeastern Syria
Turkey may be preparing for potential offensive operations in northeastern Syria, with Turkish and Syrian defense officials discussing military cooperation and the Turkish government outlining political justifications for a joint operation against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The Turkish Defense Ministry has denied that recent footage of Turkish units deploying to Syrian positions suggested that the Turkish army was preparing for an operation, characterizing the movement as "routine troop rotations." However, the timing of the Turkish Army Ground Forces Commander’s visit to Syria is notable, and coordination between Syrian and Turkish ground forces would be a necessary part of possible preparations for a joint offensive or Turkish operations in Syrian territory.
