Key Takeaways
- Widening protests in Iran sparked by the country’s ailing economy are putting new pressure on its theocracy.
- The protests have reached over 170 locations in 25 of Iran’s 31 provinces, with at least 15 killed and over 580 arrests.
- The collapse of the rial has led to a widening economic crisis in Iran, with prices up on meat, rice, and other staples.
- Iran’s "Axis of Resistance" is reeling, with Israel crushing Hamas and Hezbollah struggling after the death of its top leadership.
- The U.S. has warned Iran that if it "violently kills peaceful protesters," the U.S. "will come to their rescue."
Introduction to the Protests
The protests in Iran, sparked by the country’s ailing economy, are putting new pressure on its theocracy. The demonstrations have reached over 170 locations in 25 of Iran’s 31 provinces, with at least 15 killed and over 580 arrests, according to the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency. The protests do not appear to be stopping, even after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said "rioters must be put in their place." The economic pressure, intensified in September by the return of United Nations sanctions on the country over its atomic program, has put Iran’s rial currency into a free fall, now trading at some 1.4 million to $1.
The Economic Crisis
The collapse of the rial has led to a widening economic crisis in Iran. Prices are up on meat, rice, and other staples of the Iranian dinner table. The nation has been struggling with an annual inflation rate of some 40%. In December, Iran introduced a new pricing tier for its nationally subsidized gasoline, raising the price of some of the world’s cheapest gas and further pressuring the population. Tehran may seek steeper price increases in the future, as the government now will review prices every three months. The protests began first with merchants in Tehran before spreading, and while initially focused on economic issues, the demonstrations soon saw protesters chanting anti-government statements as well.
The "Axis of Resistance"
Iran’s "Axis of Resistance," which grew in prominence in the years after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion and subsequent occupation of Iraq, is reeling. Israel has crushed Hamas in the devastating war in the Gaza Strip. Hezbollah, the Shiite militant group in Lebanon, has seen its top leadership killed by Israel and has been struggling since. A lightning offensive in December 2024 overthrew Iran’s longtime stalwart ally and client in Syria, President Bashar Assad, after years of war there. Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels also have been pounded by Israeli and U.S. airstrikes. China meanwhile has remained a major buyer of Iranian crude oil, but hasn’t provided overt military support. Neither has Russia, which has relied on Iranian drones in its war on Ukraine.
The Nuclear Program
Iran has insisted for decades that its nuclear program is peaceful. However, its officials have increasingly threatened to pursue a nuclear weapon. Iran had been enriching uranium to near weapons-grade levels prior to the U.S. attack in June, making it the only country in the world without a nuclear weapons program to do so. Tehran also increasingly cut back its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog, as tensions increased over its nuclear program in recent years. The IAEA’s director-general has warned Iran could build as many as 10 nuclear bombs, should it decide to weaponize its program. U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that Iran has yet to begin a weapons program, but has "undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so."
Historical Context
Iran decades ago was one of the United States’ top allies in the Mideast under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who purchased American military weapons and allowed CIA technicians to run secret listening posts monitoring the neighboring Soviet Union. The CIA fomented a 1953 coup that cemented the shah’s rule. But in January 1979, the shah, fatally ill with cancer, fled Iran as mass demonstrations swelled against his rule. Then came the Islamic Revolution led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, which created Iran’s theocratic government. Later that year, university students overran the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, seeking the shah’s extradition and sparking the 444-day hostage crisis that saw diplomatic relations between Iran and the U.S. severed.
Conclusion
The protests in Iran, sparked by the country’s ailing economy, are putting new pressure on its theocracy. The collapse of the rial has led to a widening economic crisis in Iran, with prices up on meat, rice, and other staples. Iran’s "Axis of Resistance" is reeling, with Israel crushing Hamas and Hezbollah struggling after the death of its top leadership. The U.S. has warned Iran that if it "violently kills peaceful protesters," the U.S. "will come to their rescue." The situation in Iran is complex and volatile, with the potential for further escalation and conflict. As the protests continue, it remains to be seen how the Iranian government will respond and what the consequences will be for the country and the region.