Key Takeaways
- Christmas Day weather forecasts are becoming more accurate due to improved modeling and forecasting techniques
- A high-pressure system in the Great Australian Bight is expected to bring settled conditions to southern Australia
- Southern states can expect plenty of sunshine, while northern Australia will experience a more volatile atmosphere with rain and thunderstorms
- Temperatures will vary across the country, with the west coast expected to be hot and the southeast expected to be cooler
- Capital city forecasts for Christmas Day include:
- Adelaide: mostly sunny, 26C
- Brisbane: possible showers, 28C
- Canberra: mostly sunny, 26C
- Darwin: showers and storms, 31C
- Hobart: partly cloudy, 19C
- Melbourne: partly cloudy, 22C
- Perth: sunny, 38C
- Sydney: chance of a shower, 24C
Introduction to Christmas Weather Forecasts
With only nine days left until Christmas, the meteorological window of predictability has opened, allowing for more accurate forecasts. The latest modeling from various agencies shows high consistency, giving forecasters confidence in their predictions. While the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) will not release its official forecast until Thursday, the ABC is providing the best possible guidance currently available. A high-pressure system in the Great Australian Bight is expected to bring settled conditions to southern Australia, resulting in plenty of sunshine across the southern states.
Weather Patterns Across Australia
After a heatwave and round of showers and thunderstorms sweep across southern Australia this week, next week’s weather is looking less extreme. The high-pressure system in the Bight will control Christmas Day skies from the New South Wales coast to Western Australia, resulting in plenty of festive sunshine. However, onshore winds may bring light showers to Sydney and Melbourne, although not necessarily on Christmas Day. Hobart is likely to see a few pre-Christmas showers, but they are expected to clear by the 25th. Temperatures across southern Australia will be far less uniform, with a cooler southerly airstream over south-east states and a hot north-easterly airstream over Western Australia.
Regional Weather Forecasts
For northern Australia, the atmosphere is looking more volatile, with a plume of tropical moisture delivering a band of widespread rain to much of Queensland. The rain should linger into Christmas Day for tropical Queensland, but it is unclear whether the cloud band will have cleared from the state’s south-east in time for Santa. The Top End and Kimberley can expect typical wet season showers and thunderstorms, but there is little chance of a tropical cyclone. In contrast, southern Australia is expected to have a dry Christmas Day, with cool temperatures in the east and hot weather in the west.
Capital City Forecasts
The capital city forecasts for Christmas Day are as follows: Adelaide can expect a fairly typical December day with mostly sunny skies and a sea breeze, while Brisbane’s weather is trickier to predict due to the uncertainty surrounding the band of rain. Canberra can expect a fairly typical December day with mostly sunny skies, and Darwin may see downpours of showers and thunderstorms. Hobart is likely to see a dry Christmas, with cold fronts delivering chilly summer weather and possibly more snow to the higher peaks of Tasmania. Melbourne is likely to experience a relatively cool Christmas, with a southerly airstream bringing the odd light shower and below-average temperatures. Perth is expected to have a hot Christmas, with a north-easterly airstream sending a very hot air mass to the WA west coast. Sydney may see light showers, with onshore winds bringing the odd light shower.
The Science Behind Weather Forecasting
The chaotic nature of the atmosphere leads to a steady decline in the accuracy of forecasts with time. However, the skill in forecasting has improved by about one day per decade during the past 50 years, meaning a seven-day forecast in 2025 is as accurate as a two-day forecast in the 1970s. Verification data shows that raw modeling during the past few years now exhibits skill to around 10 days. By utilizing multiple models and ensembles, surveying model trends and biases, and adjusting predictions based on broad-scale influences and climate, a good forecaster can optimize the accuracy of medium-range forecasts even further.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the Christmas Day weather forecast is looking promising for southern Australia, with plenty of sunshine and settled conditions expected. However, northern Australia will experience a more volatile atmosphere, with rain and thunderstorms expected. The capital city forecasts provide a more detailed look at what to expect on Christmas Day, and the science behind weather forecasting continues to improve, allowing for more accurate predictions. With only a few days left until Christmas, it’s time to start making plans and preparing for the holiday season.
