Key Takeaways:
- Flash flooding in Victoria’s Great Ocean Road was a shocking but not entirely surprising event due to climate change.
- The intensity of thunderstorm events has increased by 15-20% over the last 30 years, making floods more frequent and intense.
- Predicting flash floods is challenging due to the unpredictable nature of thunderstorms.
- Educating communities about flood risks and response is crucial to reducing the risk of harm.
- The risk of flooding is expected to double by the end of the century, with small floods getting smaller and large floods getting bigger.
Introduction to the Disaster
The recent flash flooding in Victoria’s Great Ocean Road has left many in shock, with images and stories of the disaster being described as "terrifying". The event was particularly devastating for holidaymakers at Wye River, who watched as cars were swept out to sea and a caravan park was rapidly inundated. Residents in the area reported having to run for their lives, with one resident at nearby Separation Creek telling the ABC that they "missed being killed probably by about ten seconds". The event was a stark reminder of the power of nature and the importance of being prepared for such disasters.
The Role of Climate Change
The flooding event was not surprising, given the geographic risk factors of the area and the impact of climate change. Over the last 30 years, there is clear evidence that the intensity of thunderstorm events has increased by 15-20% due to global warming. This increase in intensity makes floods more frequent and intense, and it is likely that such events will become more common in the future. In fact, the risk of flooding is expected to double by the end of the century, with small floods getting smaller and large floods getting bigger. This means that communities need to be more aware of the risks and take steps to prepare for such events.
The Challenge of Predicting Flash Floods
One of the major challenges in dealing with flash floods is predicting where and when they will occur. Thunderstorms are notoriously difficult to predict, and it is hard to know exactly where they will impact. Even with advanced radar technology, it is often impossible to predict exactly where a thunderstorm will hit, making it difficult to provide effective flood warnings. In the case of the Wye River flooding, the most intense part of the thunderstorm was only a tiny percentage of the whole area of forecast rainfall, making it even more difficult to predict. This unpredictability highlights the need for communities to be vigilant and prepared for flash floods, even when the risk seems low.
Reducing the Risk of Harm
So, what can be done to reduce the risk of harm from flash floods? The best thing that can be done is to educate communities about what warnings mean and how to respond when authorities say there’s a storm on the way. This includes raising awareness about the risks of flash flooding and the importance of taking action when warnings are issued. Governments have made significant efforts to raise awareness about bushfire risk and response, and similar efforts are needed for floods. By educating communities and providing clear and effective warnings, the risk of harm from flash floods can be significantly reduced.
A Personal Perspective
As someone who has spent decades studying floods and flood risks, the author of this article has a unique perspective on the recent flooding event. While the event was shocking, it was not surprising, given the geographic risk factors of the area and the impact of climate change. The author notes that if they were in a floodplain or on a flat area next to a river and had a warning of severe thunderstorms, they would probably get the kids up and drive to higher ground. However, the author also acknowledges that it can be difficult to think about risk when on holidays, and it’s easy to switch off and just think you’ll wait the rain out. This highlights the importance of being vigilant and prepared, even when on holidays.
The Need for Awareness and Preparation
The recent flooding event in Victoria’s Great Ocean Road is a stark reminder of the need for awareness and preparation when it comes to flash floods. As the climate continues to change, such events will become more frequent and intense, and it is essential that communities are prepared. By educating communities about flood risks and response, providing clear and effective warnings, and taking steps to prepare for such events, the risk of harm from flash floods can be significantly reduced. Ultimately, it is up to individuals and communities to take responsibility for their own safety and to be prepared for the unexpected. By working together, we can reduce the risk of harm from flash floods and create safer and more resilient communities.
