Key Takeaways
- Separatist movements in Alberta and Quebec are unlikely to succeed due to Canadians’ persistent sense of insecurity and anxiety about the future.
- A pollster suggests that uncertainty would need to ease in order for a "yes" vote to succeed in either province.
- Structural conditions that supported sovereignty pushes in the 1990s are weaker today, with voters being more anxious and economic uncertainty being higher.
- The geopolitical environment is more volatile, and external threats have increased the perceived value of national cohesion.
Introduction to Separatist Movements
The concept of separatism has been a recurring theme in Canadian politics, with Alberta and Quebec being two provinces that have explored the idea of separating from the rest of the country. Recently, Alberta’s election agency approved a proposed referendum question on separating from Canada, which could be put to a vote if organizers collect enough signatures. Similarly, in Quebec, the Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has promised to hold a referendum on sovereignty during his first term if the party wins the general election scheduled for October 5, 2026. However, according to pollster David Coletto, these separatist movements are unlikely to succeed as long as Canadians feel a persistent sense of insecurity and anxiety about the future.
The Precarity Mindset
Coletto’s polling firm, Abacus Data, has been studying the "precarity mindset" in Canada for the last year. This concept refers to the feeling of uncertainty and insecurity that many Canadians experience when thinking about their future. Coletto argues that this mindset is a significant barrier to separatist movements, as people are more likely to prioritize national cohesion and stability in times of uncertainty. The precarity mindset is characterized by feelings of economic uncertainty, anxiety about the future, and a sense of volatility in the geopolitical environment. As long as Canadians feel insecure about their future, they are unlikely to support separatist movements that could potentially exacerbate these feelings.
Comparing the 1990s to the Present
Coletto notes that the structural conditions that supported sovereignty pushes in the 1990s are weaker today. In the 1990s, the Quebec separatist movement was able to gain significant traction, with the province narrowly voting against separation in a 1995 referendum. However, Coletto argues that the context is different today, with voters being more anxious and economic uncertainty being higher. The geopolitical environment is also more volatile, with external threats such as climate change, pandemics, and global economic uncertainty contributing to a sense of insecurity. As a result, the perceived value of national cohesion has increased, making it more difficult for separatist movements to gain support.
The Role of Economic Uncertainty
Economic uncertainty is a significant factor in the precarity mindset, and it plays a crucial role in shaping Canadians’ attitudes towards separatism. When people feel uncertain about their economic future, they are more likely to prioritize stability and security over the potential risks and uncertainties of separation. Coletto argues that this economic uncertainty is higher today than it was in the 1990s, making it more difficult for separatist movements to gain traction. Furthermore, the global economy is more interconnected than ever, and the potential consequences of separation are more complex and far-reaching. As a result, Canadians are more likely to be cautious and risk-averse when considering separatist movements.
Conclusion
In conclusion, while separatist movements in Alberta and Quebec may garner some support, they are unlikely to succeed as long as Canadians feel a persistent sense of insecurity and anxiety about the future. The precarity mindset, characterized by economic uncertainty, anxiety about the future, and a sense of volatility in the geopolitical environment, is a significant barrier to separatist movements. As Coletto notes, the structural conditions that supported sovereignty pushes in the 1990s are weaker today, and the perceived value of national cohesion has increased. As a result, it is unlikely that separatist movements will gain sufficient support to succeed in the near future.
