Key Takeaways:
- A leaked intelligence report reveals that the factors behind the antisemitic terrorist attack in Australia are also present in Canada.
- The report highlights a growing list of successful and disrupted attacks, a spike in ISIS propaganda, and plots directed by the Iranian regime as threats to Jewish communities in Canada.
- The Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs (CIJA) is calling for government action to address the root causes of radicalization and incitement of violence.
- The Canadian government has increased police presence in Jewish communities, but the CIJA CEO says more needs to be done to enforce laws and fill gaps in legislation.
- Experts warn that ISIS continues to pose a threat, despite the collapse of its territorial caliphate, and that its ideology persists and inspires individuals and small networks around the world.
Introduction to the Threat
The recent antisemitic terrorist attack in Australia has raised concerns about the safety of Jewish communities in Canada. A leaked intelligence report obtained by Global News reveals that the factors behind the attack are also present in Canada, highlighting a growing list of successful and disrupted attacks, a spike in ISIS propaganda, and plots directed by the Iranian regime. The report states that "the ingredients that were in place in Australia are present here in Canada as well," according to Noah Shack, CEO of the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs (CIJA).
The Canadian Threat Assessment
The Canadian threat assessment report, written by the Integrated Threat Assessment Centre, notes that while there is no "observed reporting" of an imminent threat targeting Jewish holiday events in Canada, an attack could still occur. The report highlights the current threat landscape for Jewish communities, including a growing list of successful and disrupted attacks, a spike in ISIS propaganda, and plots directed by the Iranian regime. The report also notes that the attack in Australia, which killed 15 people, was likely motivated by religious extremism and may have been inspired by the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack that left 1,200 dead.
Government Response and Calls for Action
In response to the events in Australia, police in Canada have increased their presence in Jewish communities. However, Shack says that while this is important, governments need to address the root causes of radicalization and incitement of violence. Laws meant to hold to account those who radicalize others and incite violence need to be enforced more consistently, and gaps in the law must be filled. The CIJA has been meeting with MPs, cabinet members, and security officials to discuss concrete steps that can be taken to fundamentally shift the situation in Canada. Shack emphasizes that "we need to ensure that the promotion of terrorism, the promotion of terrorist organizations and terrorist actions is prohibited and is being addressed and taken seriously by our legislators and law enforcement."
The Persistence of ISIS
Despite the collapse of its territorial caliphate, ISIS continues to pose a threat, according to experts. The group has successfully shifted its centre of gravity to the digital domain, where it relentlessly frames global events through an absolutist worldview that depicts Muslims as under existential threat. The demonization of Jews, as well as Christians, is central to the ISIS narrative and gives its ideology "continued resonance among radicalized audiences in the West and beyond." Lucas Weber, a senior threat analyst at Tech Against Terrorism, notes that the persistence of ISIS is fuelled by a mix of historical grievances, sectarian narratives, and the group’s "highly developed online media apparatus."
Expert Analysis
Prof. Amarnath Amarasingam, a Queen’s University professor, says that the Sydney attack was consistent with similar incidents and the target fit a pattern of "jihadist groups in their hatred of Israel and especially as retaliation for what is happening to civilians in Gaza." Colin P. Clarke of the Soufan Centre, a U.S. security research group, notes that "in many ways ISIS received a boost from the aftermath of the Oct. 7th Hamas attacks." The two years of Israeli combat against Hamas in Gaza led to high levels of civilian casualties, and even though ISIS considers Hamas an apostate group, it has still been able to leverage the global groundswell of anger over the collateral damage in Gaza and direct it towards its own ends.
Conclusion
The leaked intelligence report and expert analysis highlight the need for government action to address the root causes of radicalization and incitement of violence. The CIJA’s call for action emphasizes the importance of enforcing laws and filling gaps in legislation to prevent the promotion of terrorism and terrorist organizations. As the Canadian government continues to grapple with the threat of terrorism, it is clear that a comprehensive approach is needed to address the complex and evolving nature of the threat. By working together, governments, law enforcement, and communities can help to prevent future attacks and ensure the safety and security of all Canadians.
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