Key Takeaways:
- The number of Indian students approved to study in Canada has declined sharply, with only 9,955 permits approved between January and August 2023, compared to 77,000 in the same period a year ago.
- The decline is attributed to various factors, including increased financial requirements, a federal cap on international student intake, and a shift in student preferences towards other countries such as Europe, Australia, and the US.
- Post-graduation work options have become a top priority for Indian students, with 80% ranking it as a key factor in choosing a study destination.
- Other countries, including Ireland, Germany, and France, are absorbing the demand for international education, with significant growth in international enrollments.
- Waterloo Region’s post-secondary institutions, including the University of Waterloo and Wilfrid Laurier University, are feeling the impact of the decline, with significant drops in new study permits and international enrollments.
Introduction to the Decline in Indian Students
On a warm afternoon in New Delhi, Suraj Upadhyay stood in the doorway of a classroom that once overflowed with young Indians preparing for Canada. For years, this room was a small assembly line for Canadian dreams: language prep, application coaching, visa support. Now, the rows are nearly empty. Upadhyay has watched the entire Canada-bound pipeline shrink in a matter of months — not just the number of students who prepare for the International English Language Testing System, but the number who hold onto Canada as their first choice. This decline is not anecdotal, but rather a sweeping shift across India and destination markets, now plainly visible at Waterloo Region’s post-secondary institutions.
The Sharp National Decline
Data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) shows a collapse in the number of Indian students approved to study in Canada. Between January and August this year, Canada approved 9,955 permits for Indian students. For that same period a year ago, that number was nearly 77,000. Two years ago, it was about 150,000. Even the monthly application flow has thinned, with Indian students submitting 19,175 applications in August 2023, compared to 3,920 in August 2025. The decline comes as Canada tightens international student intake for a second year, with study permits capped at 437,000, down 10% from the previous year.
Consultants’ Insights
Consultants in New Delhi, such as Upadhyay, believe that one change pushed many students away: money. The financial requirements for international students, including a Guaranteed Investment Certificate (GIC) account, jumped to $20,000 from $10,000. For many families, this change alone forced a rethink. Then came the federal cap, a reduction in temporary resident and foreign work permits, and what Upadhyay calls a "two-year gap" on permits for new international students. Gurpreet Singh from Smart Geek Visas in New Delhi is seeing the same pattern, with a growing number of students shifting towards Europe, Australia, and the US — destinations that have become more realistic within their "budget."
The Shift in Student Preferences
For consultants like Upadhyay, the shift is stark but simple: students who once saw Canada as the safest and clearest path now see better alternatives. Upadhyay said a growing number are shifting towards Europe, Australia, and the US — destinations that have become more realistic within their "budget." ApplyBoard, a Kitchener-based education technology company, shows that post-graduation work options now outweigh every other factor when Indian students choose where to study, with 80% of students ranking it as a top priority. This has made countries such as Australia more competitive, with Australia recently extending post-study work rights, while Canada’s pathways have become less predictable.
Global Destinations Absorbing the Demand
Other countries are absorbing the demand for international education, with significant growth in international enrollments. In 2024-25, the number of international enrollments in Ireland’s higher education institutions grew for the fourth academic year in a row, reaching a record high of 44,500, surpassing the previous year’s total of 40,000. Indian students remained the largest international student population in Ireland, and rose by 30% year-over-year. Germany and France are also student favorites, with an average of about 5% and 3% year-over-year growth, respectively. Meanwhile, between January and August 2025, Australian higher education saw an approval rate of nearly 93%, up about 10% over the same period in 2024.
Waterloo Region’s Numbers Reflect the National Shift
The University of Waterloo, a longtime magnet for Indian engineering and tech students, is feeling the impact of the decline. New study permits for UW undergraduates dropped 43% in just two years, falling from 935 in 2022 to 530 in 2024. During the same period, UW’s overall new study permit approvals also fell, from 1,725 to 1,145. Since 2021, its international enrollment has dropped 27%. Wilfrid Laurier University is seeing a similar pattern, with its new permit approvals for bachelor’s degrees falling to 105 in 2024, compared to 205 in 2022. The region’s institutions are becoming more graduate-heavy, less undergraduate-heavy — mirroring the shift consultants see on the ground.
Conclusion
The decline in Indian students coming to Canada is a complex issue, driven by a combination of factors, including increased financial requirements, a federal cap on international student intake, and a shift in student preferences towards other countries. As the demand for international education continues to evolve, it is essential for Canadian institutions to adapt and respond to the changing needs and preferences of international students. By doing so, they can remain competitive in the global market and continue to attract top talent from around the world.
