Key Takeaways
- The number of properties for sale across the country has increased by 8.5% compared to the same time last year, reaching 173,000.
- Despite the increase, the current number of properties for sale remains below the long-term average for November.
- New supply has decreased by 1.6% compared to October.
- The trade war launched by US President Donald Trump has had a significant impact on Canada’s housing market.
- Interest rates are now lower due to a softer economy, and the focus is on whether the spring of 2026 will bring a return to normal levels of housing activity.
Introduction to the Current State of the Housing Market
The Canadian housing market has experienced a notable increase in the number of properties for sale, with an 8.5% jump compared to the same time last year, resulting in a total of 173,000 properties on the market. However, despite this increase, the current number of properties for sale remains below the long-term average for November. This suggests that while there may be some improvement in the market, it still has not returned to its normal state. Additionally, new supply has decreased by 1.6% compared to October, which may indicate that the market is still experiencing some challenges.
The Impact of the Trade War on the Housing Market
The trade war launched by US President Donald Trump has had a significant impact on Canada’s housing market. According to CREA chair Valérie Paquin, the trade measures implemented by the US have been the main impediment to market growth over the past 12 months. The economic shock caused by the tariffs has weighed heavily on the housing market, and the expected recovery in 2025 was disrupted as a result. Paquin noted that the initial expectation was for 2025 to be the year when housing markets would come out of their interest rate-induced hibernation, but the tariffs pulled the rug out from under that recovery.
The Effect of Interest Rates on the Housing Market
The current state of interest rates is also a significant factor in the housing market. With interest rates now even lower due to a softer economy, the focus is on whether the spring of 2026 will bring a return to normal levels of housing activity. Paquin suggested that the shift in interest rates may have a positive impact on the market, but it is still unclear whether this will be enough to stimulate a full recovery. The combination of lower interest rates and the potential for a resolution to the trade war may lead to an increase in housing activity, but it is still too early to tell.
Looking Ahead to the Future of the Housing Market
As the housing market looks ahead to the spring of 2026, there is a sense of cautious optimism. While the current number of properties for sale is still below the long-term average, the increase in properties for sale and the decrease in new supply may indicate that the market is starting to shift. The impact of the trade war and the current state of interest rates will continue to be significant factors in the market, and it is unclear how these factors will play out in the coming months. However, with the potential for a resolution to the trade war and the current low interest rates, there is a possibility that the spring of 2026 may bring a return to more normal levels of housing activity.
Conclusion and Future Prospects
In conclusion, the Canadian housing market is still experiencing challenges, but there are some signs of improvement. The increase in properties for sale and the decrease in new supply may indicate that the market is starting to shift, and the current low interest rates may stimulate some activity. However, the impact of the trade war and the current state of the economy will continue to be significant factors in the market. As the market looks ahead to the spring of 2026, there is a sense of cautious optimism, and it will be important to monitor the market closely to see how these factors play out. With the potential for a resolution to the trade war and the current low interest rates, there is a possibility that the spring of 2026 may bring a return to more normal levels of housing activity, but it is still too early to tell.
