Key Takeaways
- The share of Canadian exports to the United States has fallen to its lowest level, excluding the pandemic, in October 2025, representing 67.3% of all exports.
- Exports to the US have decreased by 4.1%, while imports from the US have increased by 5.3%, resulting in a significant reduction in Canada’s trade surplus with the US.
- The trade surplus with the US has decreased to $4.8 billion in October, down from $8.4 billion in September.
- Exports to non-US countries have risen by 15.6% to a record high, driven by gold exports to the UK and oil exports to China.
Introduction to the Shift in Canadian Exports
The latest data released by Statistics Canada has revealed a significant shift in the country’s export landscape. As of October 2025, the share of Canadian exports to the United States has fallen to its lowest level, excluding the pandemic, since measurements began in 1997. This decline is a notable development, as the US has traditionally been Canada’s largest trading partner. The decrease in exports to the US has been accompanied by an increase in imports from the country, resulting in a substantial reduction in Canada’s trade surplus with its southern neighbor.
Decline in Exports to the US
The decline in exports to the US is a significant trend that warrants attention. In October 2025, exports to the US represented 67.3% of all Canadian exports, a decrease of 4.1% from the previous period. This decline is the largest on record, excluding the pandemic, and marks a new low for the share of exports to the US. The decrease in exports to the US has been driven by a range of factors, including changes in global demand, trade policies, and the competitiveness of Canadian products. As a result, Canadian businesses and policymakers will need to adapt to this new reality and explore opportunities to diversify the country’s export markets.
Impact on Canada’s Trade Surplus
The decline in exports to the US has had a significant impact on Canada’s trade surplus with its southern neighbor. In October 2025, the trade surplus with the US stood at $4.8 billion, down from $8.4 billion in September. This represents a near-halving of the surplus, and highlights the challenges facing Canadian exporters in the US market. The increase in imports from the US, which rose by 5.3% in October, has also contributed to the decline in the trade surplus. As a result, Canadian policymakers will need to carefully monitor the country’s trade performance and develop strategies to support exporters and promote trade diversification.
Growth in Exports to Non-US Countries
While the decline in exports to the US is a concern, there are positive trends emerging in Canada’s trade landscape. Exports to non-US countries rose by 15.6% in October 2025, reaching a record high. This growth has been driven by a range of factors, including increased demand for Canadian products in key markets such as the UK and China. Gold exports to the UK and oil exports to China have been particularly strong, highlighting the opportunities for Canadian businesses in these markets. As the global economy continues to evolve, it is likely that Canada will need to diversify its export markets and develop new trade relationships to support economic growth and prosperity.
Conclusion and Future Outlook
In conclusion, the latest data from Statistics Canada highlights a significant shift in Canada’s export landscape. The decline in exports to the US and the growth in exports to non-US countries are trends that warrant attention and analysis. As the country’s trade landscape continues to evolve, it is essential that policymakers and businesses develop strategies to support trade diversification and promote Canadian products in key markets. By doing so, Canada can mitigate the risks associated with a decline in exports to the US and capitalize on new opportunities in the global economy. The future of Canadian trade will depend on the ability of the country to adapt to changing global trends and develop new trade relationships that support economic growth and prosperity.