Key Takeaways:
- Historical Context: Despite narrowing margins of victory in recent matches, the All Blacks consistently find ways to win against Scotland.
- Weakened All Blacks: The current All Blacks squad is not considered a vintage team, missing key players and having suffered recent losses.
- Crucial Absence: The injury of Zander Fagerson is a significant blow to Scotland’s chances, weakening their tighthead prop position.
- Front Row Concerns: Scotland’s tighthead options, D’Arcy Rae and Elliot Millar-Mills, lack the experience and proven ability to consistently challenge the All Blacks’ scrum.
- Selection Choices: Some of Gregor Townsend’s squad selections, particularly in the back row and among the locks, have raised questions.
- Dependence on Forwards: Scotland’s world-class backline needs a stable platform from the forwards, especially at tighthead, to effectively attack.
Summary:
The anticipation surrounding the Scotland versus All Blacks match is building, but the historical context weighs heavily on the prospect of a Scottish victory. While past landslide victories of the All Blacks have narrowed in recent encounters, the New Zealanders have consistently managed to secure wins, showcasing their resilience and ability to perform under pressure.
The hope for a Scottish win hinges on the perception that this All Blacks team is not at their vintage best. They are missing key players like Scott and Jordie Barrett, and have suffered defeats against Argentina and a heavy loss to South Africa. Even their victory over Ireland wasn’t entirely convincing, suggesting vulnerabilities that Scotland might exploit.
However, Scotland’s ambitions have suffered a significant blow with the news that Zander Fagerson is unavailable. Fagerson’s absence is a major setback, as he is a robust and durable tighthead prop capable of playing extended minutes. His engine and work rate are unmatched by most other props in the modern game, making him a key asset to the Scottish pack.
Without Fagerson, Scotland’s tighthead options appear less formidable. D’Arcy Rae, while admirable, has limited Test experience, and Elliot Millar-Mills is yet to prove himself as an All Black-beating player. The red flags are flying for Scotland in this crucial area, as the tighthead prop position will face enormous pressure from the All Blacks’ Ethan de Groot. Rae’s performance will be critical, and he will need to deliver a career-defining performance to give Scotland a chance.
Scotland boasts a world-class backline, but their ability to influence the game depends on the stability and dominance of the forward pack. The focus will be on how Rae copes at tighthead, as his performance will be instrumental in providing the platform needed for Finn Russell, Sione Tuipulotu, Darcy Graham, and Blair Kinghorn to unleash their attacking potential.
Gregor Townsend’s selection decisions have also raised some eyebrows. The inclusion of Kyle Steyn over Duhan van der Merwe suggests a focus on game-management intelligence over raw power. The back row lacks a recognized ball-winning player, with Rory Darge starting on the bench. The inclusion of Marshall Sykes over Max Williamson in the 23-man squad is another curious choice, as Williamson appears to have more potential. These selection choices could prove decisive in determining the outcome of the match.