Image Source: Sara Sanchez
Key Takeaways:
- The Chicago Cubs signed Alex Bregman to a 5-year, $175 million deal, with a sticker price AAV of $35 million, setting a new franchise mark.
- Bregman is a consistent 4 fWAR player, with two MVP-caliber seasons in 2018 and 2019, and represents a significant upgrade at third base for the Cubs.
- Bregman’s batted ball profile may be affected by Wrigley Field’s deep left field corner, but his power to the alleys should play well in Chicago.
- The deal defers $70 million to keep the Cubs under the luxury tax, and fans can expect the team to exceed the first tier of the luxury tax this year.
- Bregman’s elite approach at the plate should age well, making him a valuable addition to the Cubs lineup.
Introduction to the Signing
It was a big weekend in Chicago sports, with the Bears coming back to beat the Packers and the Cubs signing Alex Bregman to a 5-year, $175 million deal. As the Cubs’ President of Baseball Operations, Jed Hoyer, noted, "This is an exciting day for the Chicago Cubs… Alex is a talented player who brings a high level of production and leadership to our team." The deal is one of the biggest contracts in the history of the Cubs, and it’s a significant upgrade at third base, where the Cubs struggled last season. As Bregman said, "I’m thrilled to join the Cubs and be a part of this talented team… I’m looking forward to contributing to the team’s success and helping to bring a championship to Chicago."
Breaking Down Bregman’s Numbers
Bregman has been a consistent player since 2021, with a fWAR range of 2 to 5. He has two MVP-caliber seasons in 2018 and 2019, with 7.9 and 8.3 fWAR, respectively. As Eno Sarris noted in an episode of Rates & Barrels, "Bregman’s approach at the plate is elite, and it should age well… He’s a very different player compared to Isaac Paredes, and his power ranges across left field, beyond the corner and into the alleys." Bregman’s key offensive stats by season show a player who is consistently productive, with a wRC+ of 114 or higher in every season since 2016.
Defensive Contributions
Bregman is not only a great hitter, but he’s also an excellent defender at third base. By Statcast’s fielding run value, Bregman was a positive contributor last season, notching three FRV in 972 innings. In comparison, Matt Shaw had -1 FRV in 1010 innings for the Cubs last season. As Brett Taylor noted, "Bregman’s defensive skills are a significant upgrade for the Cubs… He’s a player who can make a big impact on both sides of the ball." Bregman’s defensive contributions will be a welcome addition to the Cubs, who struggled defensively at third base last season.
Batted Ball Profile Concerns
One concern about Bregman’s signing is how his batted ball profile will play at Wrigley Field. Bregman’s power comes almost exclusively from pulled fly balls, and Wrigley Field has the deepest left field corner in baseball. However, as noted earlier, Bregman’s power ranges across left field, beyond the corner and into the alleys, which should play well in Chicago. As Bregman said, "I’m not worried about the dimensions of Wrigley Field… I’m confident that my power will play well in Chicago."
Contract Details
The deal is a significant investment for the Cubs, with a sticker price AAV of $35 million, setting a new franchise mark. The contract defers $70 million to keep the Cubs under the luxury tax, which lowers the AAV to approximately $31 million. As Cubs’ owner Tom Ricketts noted, "We’re committed to putting a winning team on the field, and this deal is a big step in that direction… We’re excited to have Alex on board and look forward to seeing him contribute to the team’s success." Fans can expect the Cubs to exceed the first tier of the luxury tax this year, but this deal should keep them more competitive in the free agent market.
Conclusion
The signing of Alex Bregman is an excellent move for the Cubs, addressing a significant need at third base. Bregman’s consistent production, elite approach at the plate, and defensive skills make him a valuable addition to the team. While there may be some concerns about his batted ball profile, his power to the alleys should play well in Chicago. As the Cubs look to build on their playoff appearance last season, the signing of Bregman is a big step in the right direction. As Hoyer noted, "We’re excited to have Alex on board and look forward to seeing him contribute to the team’s success… This is a big day for the Chicago Cubs, and we’re looking forward to the future."
https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/chicago-cubs-statistical-analysis/205162/alex-bregman-signing-by-the-numbers
