Key Takeaways
- The three largest metropolitan areas in Canada (Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal) have seen a significant decline in their share of new immigrants, from 80% two decades ago to 46% in the 12 months ending in mid-2025.
- The number of new immigrants in Canada is declining, with a 6.2% drop between 2023-24 and 2024-25, and a 10% and 14% decline in Toronto and Vancouver, respectively.
- The decline in the large cities’ share of new immigrants is attributed to the increasing number of international students attending college or university outside of the three major metro areas and later obtaining permanent residency in smaller locales.
- The housing affordability crisis in Toronto and Vancouver has led to a population slowdown, with growth coming to a standstill, while Montreal has experienced faster growth due to better affordability conditions.
Introduction to the Shift in Immigration Patterns
Canada’s three largest metropolitan areas, Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal, have historically been the primary destinations for new immigrants to the country. However, recent data released by Statistics Canada reveals that this trend is shifting. Over the 12 months ending in mid-2025, the three census metropolitan areas attracted a combined 46% of new immigrants, down from close to 80% two decades earlier. This decline is not only a result of the changing immigration patterns but also a reflection of the broader population slowdown in Canada’s largest urban centers.
The Impact of International Students on Immigration Patterns
According to Mike Moffatt, an economist and founding director of the Missing Middle Initiative at the University of Ottawa, the decline in the large cities’ share of new immigrants can be attributed, in part, to the increasing number of international students attending college or university outside of the three major metro areas. These students later obtain permanent residency in smaller locales, contributing to the growth of these areas. This shift in immigration patterns is a significant factor in the declining share of new immigrants in Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal. As the number of international students continues to rise, it is likely that this trend will persist, with smaller cities and towns becoming more attractive destinations for new immigrants.
The Housing Affordability Crisis and Its Effects
The housing affordability crisis in Toronto and Vancouver has been a major factor in the population slowdown in these cities. The crisis has spurred many younger families to move elsewhere, seeking more affordable housing options. This has served as a barrier for newcomers, who are often priced out of the market. In contrast, Montreal has experienced faster growth due to its better affordability conditions. Economists Matthieu Arseneau and Daren King, with National Bank Financial, note that Montreal’s growth is a reflection of its more affordable housing market, making it a more attractive destination for new immigrants and young families.
The Broader Population Slowdown
The decline in the large cities’ share of new immigrants is part of a broader population slowdown in Canada’s largest urban centers. Toronto and Vancouver, in particular, have seen their growth come to a standstill. This slowdown is not only a result of the housing affordability crisis but also a reflection of the changing demographics and economic conditions in these cities. As the population ages and the cost of living continues to rise, it is likely that this trend will persist, with smaller cities and towns becoming more attractive destinations for new immigrants and young families.
The Future of Immigration in Canada
The shift in immigration patterns and the population slowdown in Canada’s largest urban centers have significant implications for the country’s future. As the number of new immigrants continues to decline, it is essential that policymakers address the underlying issues driving this trend. This includes addressing the housing affordability crisis, improving economic conditions, and creating more attractive destinations for new immigrants. By doing so, Canada can ensure that it remains a competitive and attractive destination for newcomers, driving economic growth and prosperity for years to come. Ultimately, the future of immigration in Canada will depend on the ability of policymakers to adapt to the changing needs and preferences of new immigrants, and to create a more inclusive and sustainable immigration system.
