Key Takeaways:
- The Trump administration has proposed a "tariff dividend" refund, which could potentially provide $2,000 checks to middle- and lower-income Americans
- The plan is still in its infancy, and experts question whether tariff revenue will be sufficient to cover the cost of issuing such checks
- Legislation would be required to pass the checks, and Congress has yet to take action on the proposal
- Other stimulus check proposals, such as the "DOGE dividend" and "Warrior dividends," have been mentioned but lack concrete plans or funding
- The IRS warns of stimulus check scams and advises the public to be cautious of fake messages and links
Introduction to Tariff Dividend Refund
The concept of a "tariff dividend" refund has been touted by the Trump administration for months, with the promise of providing $2,000 checks to middle- and lower-income Americans. As of January 2026, however, no solid plans have been enacted to bring the checks to fruition. The president has repeatedly mentioned the idea, including during a December 2 cabinet meeting, where he stated that the government would be giving back refunds from tariff revenues. Despite this, experts have raised concerns that tariff revenue may not be sufficient to cover the cost of issuing such checks.
Tariff Revenue and Funding
The Treasury Department reported generating $195 billion in tariff-related revenue in September, while the Bipartisan Policy Center calculated $194.9 billion in net tariff revenue in 2025. However, these figures fall short of the estimated $300 billion cost of sending the checks. The Tax Foundation estimates that Trump’s tariffs will raise $2.1 trillion in revenue over the next decade, but this dips to $1.6 trillion after accounting for foreign retaliation and other negative economic effects. The Congressional Budget Office has projected tariff revenue of $3.3 trillion over a decade. Despite these projections, it remains unclear whether tariff revenue will be sufficient to fund the proposed checks.
Legislative Requirements
Any plan to issue tariff dividend checks would likely require legislation passed by Congress, as was the case with the federal economic impact payments in 2020 and 2021. A bill called the American Worker Rebate Act of 2025 was introduced by Senator Josh Hawley in July, proposing the use of tariff revenue to issue checks between $600 and $2,400 to American taxpayer families. However, the bill was referred to the Committee on Finance and received no further action. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett has stated that the president would bring forth a proposal to Congress about dividend checks in 2026, but plans for any related money allocation could be thwarted if Trump’s tariffs are struck down by the Supreme Court.
Other Stimulus Check Proposals
In addition to the tariff dividend refund, other stimulus check proposals have been mentioned by the Trump administration. In February, the president floated the idea of issuing $5,000 stimulus checks to taxpayers in the form of a "DOGE dividend" during a summit in Miami. However, the amount of money actually saved by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has been called into question, and Elon Musk has since left the administration, rendering DOGE somewhat defunct. The administration has shared no further information or plans for the DOGE checks. Additionally, the president announced in December that he was sending $1,776 checks, called "Warrior dividends," to the nation’s 1.45 million service members before Christmas, funded by the Defense Department.
Stimulus Check Scams
As plans for any forthcoming checks remain unclear, stimulus scams have become widespread, prompting the IRS to caution the public to stay vigilant. The IRS issued a warning in July about fake messages regarding "tax credits" or "stimulus" checks from scammers pretending to be the agency. The IRS advises taxpayers to be cautious of suspicious calls, messages, or mail and to never click on fraudulent links or provide personal information. If you do receive a suspicious call or message, the IRS suggests reporting it to the agency and being aware of the warning signs of stimulus check scams. By being informed and cautious, taxpayers can protect themselves from these scams and avoid falling victim to fraudulent activities.