Key Takeaways:
- The ANC’s loss of authority in South Africa appears to be irreversible, according to business leader and author Bonang Mohale.
- The party’s decline is attributed to years of corruption, policy uncertainty, and institutional decay.
- Mohale suggests that the formation of a government of national unity (GNU) may be buying the ANC time, but it risks hastening the party’s marginalization.
- A consolidation of black political forces, potentially including the ANC, the MK Party, and the EFF, may be the key to South Africa’s next political settlement.
- Mohale is skeptical of the DA’s role in the unity government, citing the party’s lack of a track record of collaboration with other parties.
Introduction to South Africa’s Political Shift
South Africa is slowly but decisively moving towards a political era that is no longer dominated by the African National Congress (ANC). According to business leader and author Bonang Mohale, the ANC’s loss of authority appears to be irreversible. In a recent interview with Business Day, Mohale stated that the ANC’s fall below an outright majority in the 2024 elections marks more than just an electoral setback, but rather a broader realignment of South Africa’s political space. This shift is attributed to years of corruption, policy uncertainty, and institutional decay, which have led to shortages of essential services such as electricity, healthcare, and housing.
The Cumulative Damage of State Capture and Failed Governance
Mohale pointed to the cumulative damage of state capture and failed governance as evidence that the ANC’s decline was a choice, not an accident. The country’s unfinished power plants, collapsing hospitals, and other infrastructure projects are a testament to the party’s mismanagement. The ANC’s share of the vote plunged from 57% in 2019 to 40% in 2024, leaving the party trying to balance an array of demands from political parties, financial markets, and its alliance partners. This decline has significant implications for the country’s future, as the ANC’s loss of authority creates an opportunity for other parties to fill the power vacuum.
The Role of the Government of National Unity
The ANC’s recent national general council reaffirmed its support for the government of national unity (GNU), with President Cyril Ramaphosa warning that some parties within the 10-member coalition government oppose transformation. However, Mohale is skeptical of the GNU, suggesting that it may be buying the ANC time, but it risks hastening the party’s marginalization. He compared the arrangement to the transitional coalition of the 1990s that ultimately eased the National Party out of power. Mohale believes that the GNU is a temporary solution that may ultimately lead to the ANC’s demise, much like the National Party’s decline in the 1990s.
The DA’s Role in the Unity Government
Mohale is also critical of the Democratic Alliance’s (DA) role in the unity government. He believes that the DA entered negotiations with a clear political strategy, not simply a governing mandate, but also to demonstrate competence nationally while positioning itself as the alternative to ANC rule. Mohale argues that the DA’s early public complaints about inherited dysfunction were part of this strategy, rather than evidence of immediate failure. He also criticized the DA’s lack of a track record of collaboration with other parties, citing the party’s history of using black people for their own gains and then discarding them.
A Consolidation of Black Political Forces
Mohale believes that South Africa’s next political settlement is more likely to emerge from a consolidation of black political forces than from centrist coalitions. He argues that the ANC, the MK Party, and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), despite deep rivalries, draw from the same social base and could form what he calls a "Patriotic Front". This coalition would need to be built around a small set of shared principles, including ethical leadership, delivery, safety, and economic transformation. Mohale believes that if these parties were to come together, other black parties would follow, leading to a significant shift in the country’s political landscape.
Conclusion
In conclusion, South Africa is undergoing a significant political shift, with the ANC’s loss of authority appearing to be irreversible. The party’s decline is attributed to years of corruption, policy uncertainty, and institutional decay, which have led to shortages of essential services and a loss of public trust. The formation of a government of national unity may be buying the ANC time, but it risks hastening the party’s marginalization. A consolidation of black political forces, potentially including the ANC, the MK Party, and the EFF, may be the key to South Africa’s next political settlement. As the country navigates this uncertain period, it is clear that the future of South African politics will be shaped by the ability of parties to work together and prioritize the needs of the people.
