Key Takeaways:
- Five Senate Republicans voted to force debate on a resolution curbing President Donald Trump’s use of force in Venezuela, marking a rare break from the president by members of the legislative branch.
- Republican voters are skeptical of U.S. foreign involvement and may turn against it if the situation in Venezuela is mishandled.
- The Trump administration needs to prove to voters that they can navigate the Venezuelan crisis without getting into a long-term nation-building project.
- The level of U.S. involvement in Venezuela is a difficult sell to Republican voters, who are more concerned with domestic issues.
- The administration’s vagueness on its plans for Venezuela is not reassuring to voters, who need to see competence and progress to support the effort.
Introduction to the Venezuelan Crisis
The recent vote by five Senate Republicans to force debate on a resolution curbing President Donald Trump’s use of force in Venezuela marks a significant development in the ongoing crisis. This rare break from the president by members of the legislative branch signals that some Republicans are aware of the need for a precise approach to the situation. With Republican voters rallying behind Trump for the time being, the administration needs to prove that they can navigate the crisis without getting into a long-term nation-building project. The upside of a potential oil influx and the opposition to drug smuggling make displacing Nicolás Maduro an easy sell to Republican voters, but the level of U.S. involvement is a much more difficult sell.
The America First Movement and Foreign Involvement
The America First movement, which was built on the contention that politicians focus too much on America’s interests abroad and not enough on the people’s interests at home, is a significant factor in the skepticism towards U.S. foreign involvement. Trump voters will be skeptical of any involvement that is seen as a distraction from domestic issues, and the administration’s comments so far have not quelled such concerns. The prolonged U.S. involvement in the Middle East and the funding of Ukraine are examples of foreign engagements that have dredged up memories of nation-building projects that have not yielded the desired results. With many Americans still waiting for the economic boom promised by Trump, the involvement in Venezuela is especially dubious.
Polling and Public Opinion
Polling indicates that a healthy majority of Republicans, 65%, support the operation to arrest Maduro, while just 6% outright oppose it. However, 54% of Republicans are somewhat or very concerned that the United States will become too involved in Venezuela. This sentiment from GOP voters indicates a fine line on the matter of Venezuela, with Republicans rallying behind Trump’s initial forceful action but remaining apprehensive about a long-term entanglement overseas. The fact that not all congressional Republicans have fallen in line with Trump on the matter and have joined Democrats to vote in favor of debating a resolution curtailing Trump’s use of military force against Venezuela is a significant development.
The Need for Competence and Progress
For voters to be on the side of Trump in this case, they need to have faith that America’s efforts are worth the trouble. Competence will buy them more leeway, whereas perceived failures will turn sentiments against them. The administration has been vague to this point, and though that is probably necessary from a national security standpoint, vagueness is the opposite of what is needed to reassure voters. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been voicing some details of the U.S. plan for Venezuela, including the sale of oil and the resulting proceeds invested in the nation at the discretion of Washington. However, the extent to which the vestiges of Maduro’s regime will cooperate remains to be seen, and it’s easy to see how the rosy image painted by the Trump administration could encounter difficulties on the ground.
The Importance of Results
If American voters fail to see the benefit they are receiving from their foreign engagements, attitudes are likely to sour. This will be worsened if the U.S. economy doesn’t improve. Trump is making a good play in this regard, giving Republican voters the prospect of cheaper oil or less influx of illicit drugs as the net good, but the longer America remains involved without results, the less Republicans can explain it away with those points. As the president said, only time will tell how much grace the Trump administration and Republicans get with regard to their Venezuelan project. The only certainty is that Americans will be on board only so long as they think they stand to benefit and that the government’s efforts are making progress. The administration needs to navigate the Venezuelan crisis carefully and provide clear and tangible results to maintain public support.