Key Takeaways:
- The US midterm elections could have significant implications for Canada, particularly in regards to trade and the Canada-U.S.-Mexico-Agreement (CUSMA)
- Democrats may gain control of the House and Senate, which could lead to increased oversight and potential impeachment proceedings against President Trump
- Trump’s popularity is plummeting, with a recent Gallup poll showing an approval rating of 36% and disapproval rating of 60%
- The CUSMA review is likely to be combative, with the US seeking concessions from Canada and Mexico
- Canada can expect to feel the effects of the US political turmoil, particularly in regards to trade and tariffs
Introduction to the US Political Landscape
The return of Donald Trump to the White House has brought about significant changes in the US, affecting global trade, alliances, and domestic politics. As the US enters the second year of Trump’s second term, Canada can expect to feel the effects of these changes. The upcoming midterm elections are likely to be highly contentious, with Democrats attempting to regain control of Congress. The results of these elections could have significant implications for Trump’s presidency, including the potential for impeachment proceedings or increased oversight.
The Midterm Elections and Their Implications
The midterm elections are generally considered to be unfavorable for the sitting president, and this year is likely to be no exception. Democrats need to gain only four seats to take control of the Senate, although this may be a difficult task. They have better chances in the House, where Republicans currently hold a narrow majority. If Democrats are able to gain control of both the House and Senate, it could have significant implications for Trump’s presidency, including the potential for impeachment proceedings and increased oversight. According to Matthew Lebo, a political science professor at Western University, "If the Democrats can win the House and the Senate, then that’s a big deal. That means things like impeachment are back on the table, oversight and all sorts of things are back on the table."
Cracks in the Republican Party
The Republican Party has largely been unified in its support for Trump, but cracks are beginning to emerge. The recent announcement by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene that she will be retiring in January has raised questions about the party’s loyalty to the president. There have also been reports of other Republicans considering following Greene’s example, frustrated by Trump’s heavy-handed control and the increasingly polarized political climate. Additionally, some Republicans, such as Sen. Thom Tillis, have announced that they will not be running for re-election, citing concerns about the party’s direction. Trump’s threats to withhold his endorsement from rebel Republicans may be losing their sting, as his popularity continues to plummet.
The Economy and Trade
The US economy has been shaped by Trump’s tariff regime, and the president can no longer blame his predecessor for the country’s economic struggles. If economic indicators take another downturn, it could have significant implications for the midterm elections. The Canada-U.S.-Mexico-Agreement (CUSMA) review is also likely to be combative, with the US seeking concessions from Canada and Mexico. Trump has complained about Canada’s dairy supply management system and agriculture policies, and has suggested that CUSMA is a "transitional" deal. According to Fen Osler Hampson, a professor of international affairs at Carleton University, "Long-standing trade irritants are going to be magnified in this negotiation. They come up time and time again. We’ve been able to push back to a degree, but it’s going to be a lot harder this time around, and we better be ready for it."
The CUSMA Review
The CUSMA review is a three-way choice that each of the partner nations must make: to renew the agreement for another 16 years, withdraw from the trade pact, or signal both non-renewal and non-withdrawal, which would trigger an annual review and keep negotiations going. Christopher Sands, director of Johns Hopkins University’s Center for Canadian Studies, expects the US to continue the negotiations, seeing it as an opportunity to extract concessions from Canada and Mexico. However, this prolonged uncertainty could act as a drag on investment and hurt all three economies. Sands hopes for a North American truce centered on CUSMA, which would allow for the resolution of trade issues and provide a path forward for the three countries.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the US midterm elections and the CUSMA review are likely to have significant implications for Canada, particularly in regards to trade and tariffs. The outcome of the elections could lead to increased oversight and potential impeachment proceedings against Trump, while the CUSMA review is likely to be combative, with the US seeking concessions from Canada and Mexico. Canada must be prepared to navigate these challenges and protect its interests in the face of a rapidly changing US political landscape. As the US enters a new year, it is clear that the country’s political turmoil will have far-reaching consequences, and Canada must be ready to adapt to these changes in order to protect its economy and trade relationships.
