Key Takeaways:
- The Trump administration’s pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to step down and potential military action could lead to mass displacement and a new refugee surge.
- A study by the Niskanen Center found that US military action could displace 1.7 to 3 million people within a few years, depending on the scope of the conflict.
- The majority of refugees would likely end up in neighboring countries, but some could make their way to the US, as seen in the 2017 crisis.
- The economic crisis in Venezuela, exacerbated by US sanctions, has been the primary driver of migration, with 5 million people displaced by 2021.
- Experts warn that any military action could worsen the humanitarian crisis, but the extent of the impact depends on the scope and nature of the conflict.
Introduction to the Crisis
When President Donald Trump has been asked about the reason he’s pressuring Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to step down and threatening military action against the country, he consistently blames the South American leader for two things: drugs and migrants. Trump has stated that Venezuela has "dumped hundreds of thousands of people into our country from prisons," although there is no evidence to support this claim. The Trump administration has continued its strikes on alleged drug vessels at sea, and the president has threatened that attacks against drug cartels on land in Venezuela would begin "very soon." Experts who have modeled the potential consequences of such actions warn that Venezuela could see mass displacement and a new refugee surge, similar to the 2017 crisis that led to thousands of Venezuelans moving to the US.
Potential Consequences of Military Action
A study by the Niskanen Center found that US military action could displace 1.7 to 3 million people within a few years, depending on the scope of the conflict. If the attacks triggered a brief internal conflict, the study projected that 1.7 to 3 million people could be displaced. However, if the conflict were to become protracted, the number of displaced people could exceed 4 million, overwhelming already-strained neighboring countries like Colombia and Brazil. The study also found that limited strikes, not aimed at removing the Maduro administration and largely focused on drug-trafficking infrastructure, could limit the refugee numbers to fewer than 20,000. In the unlikely event of a full-scale US intervention, the study warned that displacement could range from hundreds of thousands to more than 4 million, depending on how quickly stability is restored.
The Economic Crisis in Venezuela
The economic crisis in Venezuela, exacerbated by US sanctions, has been the primary driver of migration. A 2022 study found that while Venezuela’s crisis began years earlier than the 2017 surge, US sanctions in 2019, particularly those targeting the oil sector, sharply accelerated the country’s economic collapse. The sanctions cut off the country’s primary source of foreign revenue, leading to a 71% contraction of the economy. The combination of initial financial crises worsened by sanctions led to a massive exodus, with the number of Venezuelan refugees and migrants jumping sharply beginning in 2017, climbing from just over 1 million people to more than 5 million by 2021.
Personal Stories of Migration
Henrique, who left Venezuela in August 2017 and now lives in the US, said that the decision to leave was driven by a combination of political repression and economic collapse. He noted that the economy had been in ruins since 2014, with hyperinflation, no jobs, and no decent salaries. Henrique said that for students his age, staying no longer felt possible, and he left, like 90% of his high school class. The struggling economy was the biggest driver of the surge in Venezuelans leaving, according to experts. "Venezuelan migration is fundamentally economic," said Francisco Rodríguez, a senior research fellow at the Center for Economic and Policy Research.
The Future of US-Venezuela Relations
Trump has not said how he expects to end the standoff between Venezuela and the US, which has seen more than 15,000 American troops and a carrier strike group moved into the region. While there have been indications that diplomacy might still be possible, with Trump and Maduro speaking by phone last month, no clear off-ramp has emerged. Former US Ambassador to Venezuela James Story said he does not expect large-scale displacement from limited, targeted strikes, which some analysts view as one of the more likely actions Trump could take. Story told CNN that the humanitarian fallout would likely be far more contained than broader modeling suggests. However, experts warn that any military action could worsen the humanitarian crisis, and the extent of the impact depends on the scope and nature of the conflict.
