2025 Russian Winter Campaign Update

2025 Russian Winter Campaign Update

Key Takeaways

  • Ukrainian forces continue to advance within and near Kupyansk, and more details have emerged about the counteroffensive effort.
  • Ukrainian forces began counteroffensive operations in September 2025 after relatively rapid Russian advances in the Kupyansk direction and infiltrations into Kupyansk itself.
  • Russian forces launched 495 total missiles and drones against Ukraine overnight on December 12 to 13, heavily targeting energy infrastructure across the country.
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that he will hold discussions regarding a peace settlement with US and European delegations in Berlin in the coming days.
  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions, while Russian forces recently advanced in the Lyman direction.

Introduction to the Conflict
The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has been ongoing, with both sides experiencing advances and setbacks. Ukrainian forces have been making gains in the Kupyansk direction, while Russian forces have been attempting to push back. The situation is complex, with multiple fronts and various military units involved. The Ukrainian military has been working to counter Russian advances, and the international community has been watching the situation closely.

Ukrainian Counteroffensive Efforts
Ukrainian forces began their counteroffensive operations in September 2025, after Russian forces had made significant gains in the Kupyansk direction. The Ukrainian military has been working to push back against Russian forces, and has made some notable advances. Geolocated footage has shown Ukrainian forces making gains in central Kupyansk, and Ukrainian military observer Yuriy Butusov has reported that Ukrainian forces have completely seized Yuvileynyi Microraion in southwestern Kupyansk. However, Russian forces are still attempting to penetrate into Kupyansk, primarily on foot.

Russian Military Efforts
Russian forces have been launching attacks on Ukrainian positions, including a significant missile and drone strike on December 12 to 13. The strike targeted energy infrastructure across Ukraine, causing power outages and damage to residential areas. Russian forces have also been attempting to advance in the Kupyansk direction, but have been met with resistance from Ukrainian forces. Russian milbloggers have been reporting on the situation, with some claiming that Russian forces have made gains, while others have expressed frustration with the lack of progress.

International Involvement
The international community has been watching the situation in Ukraine closely, with many countries providing support to the Ukrainian military. The United States has been providing significant military aid to Ukraine, and has been working to facilitate a peace settlement. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced that he will hold discussions with US and European delegations in Berlin in the coming days, in an effort to find a peaceful resolution to the conflict.

Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign
Russian forces have been launching a significant air, missile, and drone campaign against Ukraine, targeting military and civilian infrastructure. The campaign has caused significant damage and disruption, and has been widely condemned by the international community. Ukrainian forces have been working to counter the campaign, using air defense systems and other measures to protect themselves and civilians.

Significant Activity in Belarus
There have been significant developments in Belarus, with President Alexander Lukashenko pardoning 123 political prisoners in exchange for the United States lifting sanctions against Belarusian potash. The move has been seen as an attempt by Lukashenko to improve relations with the West, and to reduce tensions with Ukraine. However, the situation in Belarus remains complex, and it is unclear what the long-term implications of the pardon will be.

Conclusion
The conflict between Ukraine and Russia remains ongoing, with both sides experiencing advances and setbacks. The international community is watching the situation closely, and is working to facilitate a peaceful resolution. The Ukrainian military is continuing to counter Russian advances, and is making gains in some areas. However, the situation remains complex, and it is unclear what the long-term outcome will be.

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