Key Takeaways
- The Kremlin is setting conditions to reject the Ukrainian and European peace plan drafts after previously rejecting key points of the US-proposed 28-point peace plan that overwhelmingly benefitted Russia.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with US negotiators in Berlin, Germany on December 14 to continue negotiations to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.
- Russian forces will likely continue to struggle to maintain the Kremlin’s desired multi-pronged offensive operations in different operational directions due to the long-term materiel and manpower costs of such operations.
- Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign continues to degrade Russia’s oil refining and military capabilities in Russia and occupied Ukraine.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka direction, while Russian forces recently advanced in the Hulyaipole direction.
Introduction to the Conflict
The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to significant developments in recent days, with the Kremlin setting conditions to reject the Ukrainian and European peace plan drafts. Russian Presidential Aide Yuriy Ushakov stated that Russia has stated its position “very clearly” and that Russia will have “strong objections” if Ukraine and Europe make amendments to the peace plan. This comes after Russia previously rejected key points of the US-proposed 28-point peace plan that overwhelmingly benefitted Russia.
Negotiations and Diplomacy
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with US negotiators in Berlin, Germany on December 14 to continue negotiations to end Russia’s war in Ukraine. The meeting was attended by US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, former Senior Advisor to the US President Jared Kushner, and German Chancellor Frederich Merz. The negotiations focused on the 20-point peace plan, with Witkoff stating that negotiations will continue on December 15. Ukrainian Presidential Communications Adviser Dmytro Lytvyn told Reuters that negotiations lasted for over five hours.
Russian Military Operations
Russian forces will likely continue to struggle to maintain the Kremlin’s desired multi-pronged offensive operations in different operational directions due to the long-term materiel and manpower costs of such operations. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian military officials have intensified exaggerated claims of advances across the frontline in recent weeks. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets assessed that the Russian Eastern Grouping of Forces (GoF) will need to regroup or receive troops and materiel reinforcements from other operational directions in order to continue offensive operations in the Hulyaipole direction.
Ukrainian Long-Range Strike Campaign
Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign continues to degrade Russia’s oil refining and military capabilities in Russia and occupied Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck the Afipsky Oil Refinery in Krasnodar Krai, causing explosions and a large-scale fire. Ukrainian forces also struck the Uryupinsk Oil Depot in Volgograd Oblast, causing explosions and fires at the facility. Additionally, Ukrainian forces reportedly struck the Slavneft-YANOS Oil Refinery in Yaroslavl City, one of Russia’s largest oil refineries.
Regional Military Developments
Russian forces recently advanced in the Hulyaipole direction, with geolocated footage indicating that Russian forces advanced to the T0401 Dnipro City-Melitopol highway in southern Varvarivka. Ukrainian forces, on the other hand, recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka direction, with geolocated footage indicating that Ukrainian forces advanced in eastern Kostyantynivka. Russian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast, but did not advance. Russian forces also continued limited ground assaults in the Kherson direction, but did not advance.
Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign
Russian forces launched a drone and missile strike against Ukraine overnight on December 13 and 14. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched one Iskander-M ballistic missile from Rostov Oblast and 138 Shahed-type, Gerbera-type, and other strike drones from various locations. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces repelled 110 Russian drones in northern, southern, and eastern Ukraine, and that the missiles and 10 drones struck six locations.
Conclusion
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, with the Kremlin setting conditions to reject the Ukrainian and European peace plan drafts. Ukrainian forces are making gains on the battlefield, while Russia’s long-range strike campaign continues to degrade Ukraine’s military capabilities. The international community must continue to support Ukraine in its efforts to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity. The situation remains fluid, and further developments are expected in the coming days.
