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Key Takeaways
- Utah State remains the only team in the Mountain West conference with a strong chance of securing an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.
- Boise State’s chances of making the tournament have taken a hit after a rough week, with their only likely path to the tournament being a conference championship win.
- New Mexico has received a significant boost in their tournament chances after winning nine of their last ten games, including a 20-point win over Wyoming and a 10-point win over Colorado State.
- San Diego State is still on the outside looking in, but has a chance to improve their standing with upcoming Quad 2 games against Wyoming, New Mexico, and Grand Canyon.
Introduction to the Mountain West Conference Bracketology
As the Mountain West men’s basketball season continues to heat up, the conference’s bracketology outlook is becoming increasingly important. With March Madness just around the corner, teams are jockeying for position in the hopes of securing a spot in the NCAA Tournament. As noted in the original article, "Utah State remains the lone soul for an at-large bid. The only way the MW currently nets multiple bids is if the field — not Utah State — wins the MW Title." This highlights the importance of Utah State’s performance in the conference, as they are currently the only team with a strong chance of securing an at-large bid.
Utah State’s Chances of Securing an At-Large Bid
Utah State is currently the top team in the Mountain West conference, with an average bracket matrix seed of 7.43. As the article notes, "They are the only program in the top-40 in NET and in the top-45 in KenPom." This puts them in a strong position to secure an at-large bid, but they will face tough tests in the coming week against Boise State and Nevada. As the article states, "They will be tested within the next week against a struggling Boise State on the road on Saturday, and Nevada at home on Wednesday, Jan. 14." These games will be crucial in determining Utah State’s chances of securing an at-large bid.
Boise State’s Struggles and Tournament Chances
Boise State, on the other hand, has had a rough week, dropping 10 spots in KenPom and 24 spots in NET. As the article notes, "It was a rough week for Boise State. They dropped 10 spots in KenPom and 24 spots from last week’s NET as a result of their triple overtime loss to San Diego State and 17-point loss to Grand Canyon." This has made it increasingly unlikely that Boise State will secure an at-large bid, with their only likely path to the tournament being a conference championship win. As the article states, "It’s looking more realistic that Boise’s only path to making the NCAA Tournament is a MW championship, despite topping the conference in Quad 1 wins (2) when the field has three combined."
New Mexico’s Surge in Tournament Chances
New Mexico, meanwhile, has received a significant boost in their tournament chances after winning nine of their last ten games. As the article notes, "New Mexico received the biggest bump from last week’s bracketology. They jumped 22 spots in NET, beating Wyoming (Quad 3) at home by 20 before beating Colorado State by 10 inside Moby Arena." This has put them in a strong position, with a relatively soft schedule coming up. As the article states, "Winners of nine of their last 10, they have a pretty soft schedule coming up, with six of their next seven being Quad 3 or 4 games." New Mexico’s next big test will come on January 17 against San Diego State.
San Diego State’s Chances of Making the Tournament
San Diego State is still on the outside looking in, but has a chance to improve their standing with upcoming Quad 2 games against Wyoming, New Mexico, and Grand Canyon. As the article notes, "While it picked up a pair of Quad 2 wins over Boise and Nevada, the Aztecs moved up just 11 spots in NET and are still on the outside-looking-in." These games will be crucial in determining San Diego State’s chances of making the tournament, and they will need to perform well if they hope to secure a spot. As the article states, "They have three Quad 2 games over the next two weeks against Wyoming, New Mexico and Grand Canyon, which could be pushed to Quad 3 if Grand Canyon (currently 97 in NET) falls out of the top-100."
https://www.mwcconnection.com/mountain-west-basketball/78982/2025-26-mountain-west-bracketology-january-9