Key Takeaways
- The US-led talks on a peace plan for Ukraine have been fruitful, with progress made on securing amendments to the plan.
- European leaders have been labeled "weak" by President Trump, who is losing patience with Ukraine and its backers.
- Ukraine faces a stark financial situation, needing an extra €135.7bn over the next two years.
- The European Union has agreed to freeze around €210bn worth of Russian assets, which could be loaned to Ukraine if a deal is reached.
- The latest version of the peace plan envisions Ukraine rapidly joining the European Union, with a potential membership date of January 2027.
Introduction to the Peace Talks
The US-led talks on a peace plan for Ukraine have been ongoing, with Ukraine and its allies in Europe hailing progress on securing amendments to the plan. However, there have been signs that President Trump is losing patience with Ukrainian President Zelensky and his backers on the continent. In a recent interview with Politico, Trump labeled European leaders "weak" and renewed his calls for Ukraine to hold elections. Zelensky has stated that elections could be held within 90 days if the US and Europe provide the necessary security, which has been a major concern since martial law was declared when Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Financial Support for Ukraine
The Ukrainian government is facing a stark financial situation, needing to find an extra €135.7bn over the next two years. To address this, the European Union has agreed to freeze around €210bn worth of Russian assets held in Europe. This move is hoped to pave the way for the funds to be loaned back to Ukraine if a deal can be reached at an EU summit next week, providing Kyiv with financial help for its military and efforts to rebuild parts of the country left devastated after nearly four years of all-out war. However, this move has been condemned as theft by the Kremlin, and Russia’s central bank has said it will sue Euroclear, a Belgian bank where the vast majority of Russian assets frozen after the invasion are held.
Repurposing Russian Assets
Officials are still negotiating the exact structure of a deal to repurpose the Russian assets on behalf of Ukraine, with the Belgian government being particularly sceptical due to its particular legal exposure as the main holder. The agreement to freeze the assets is a significant step towards providing financial support to Ukraine, but the details of how the funds will be used and managed are still being worked out. The EU summit next week will be crucial in determining the outcome of these negotiations and the future of Ukraine’s financial support.
Ukraine’s EU Membership
The latest version of the peace plan being circulated envisions Ukraine rapidly joining the European Union. According to reports, Brussels backs Ukraine’s swift accession to the bloc, an idea proposed by Ukraine in the latest draft it has given to Washington. Ukraine formally applied to join the EU days after the 2022 invasion, but despite promises of an accelerated process, it is still several years away from becoming a member. Under the plan, Ukraine would become a member as soon as January 2027, although it is unclear whether Washington has approved this element of the draft. This development has significant implications for Ukraine’s future and its relationship with the EU, and will likely be a major point of discussion in the upcoming EU summit.
Conclusion and Next Steps
The situation in Ukraine remains complex and uncertain, with multiple factors at play. The US-led talks on a peace plan have made progress, but President Trump’s patience is wearing thin. The European Union’s agreement to freeze Russian assets is a significant step towards providing financial support to Ukraine, but the details of how the funds will be used and managed are still being worked out. The prospect of Ukraine’s rapid accession to the EU is a major development, but its implications and feasibility are still unclear. As the situation continues to evolve, it is essential to monitor the progress of the peace talks, the EU summit, and the ongoing negotiations over security guarantees and funding. The next few weeks will be crucial in determining the future of Ukraine and its relationship with the EU and the US.