Key Takeaways:
- President Donald Trump’s pardon of Rep. Henry Cuellar has removed a major vulnerability for the Democrat, making it harder for Republicans to unseat him in the midterm election.
- Republicans in Texas’ 28th Congressional District are confused, disappointed, and less confident about their chances after the pardon.
- The pardon has diminished one of the party’s biggest talking points against Cuellar, who was facing corruption charges.
- The National Republican Congressional Committee had included Cuellar’s seat on a list of top GOP pickup opportunities, but the pardon has changed the dynamics of the race.
- Republicans are rallying behind Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, who is seen as a promising candidate to unseat Cuellar.
Introduction to the Pardon
The recent pardon of Rep. Henry Cuellar by President Donald Trump has sent shockwaves through the Republican Party in Texas’ 28th Congressional District. Zapata County Republican Chairwoman Jennifer Thatcher expressed her surprise and disappointment at the pardon, which she believes has undermined the GOP’s efforts to unseat Cuellar in the midterm election. The pardon has removed a major vulnerability for Cuellar, who was facing corruption charges, and has left Republicans scrambling to adjust their strategy.
The Impact on the Congressional Race
The pardon has had a significant impact on the congressional race, with many Republicans expressing confusion and disappointment. Mary Wilson, the Duval County Republican Party chair, said she was puzzled about why Trump would issue a pardon that could potentially hurt Republicans’ chances in the midterms. The pardon has diminished one of the party’s biggest talking points against Cuellar, who was facing corruption charges. The National Republican Congressional Committee had included Cuellar’s seat on a list of top GOP pickup opportunities, but the pardon has changed the dynamics of the race.
Republican Reaction to the Pardon
Reynaldo Montemayor Jr., a precinct chair for the Webb County Republican Party, initially felt disappointed and surprised by the pardon. However, he has come to accept the pardon due to his trust in Trump’s leadership. Montemayor speculated that the pardon could potentially hurt Cuellar among his own party, as it indicates the congressman is favored by Trump, who is widely disliked by Democrats. Other Republicans, such as Tano Tijerina, the Republican nominee for the seat, have expressed confidence in their ability to unseat Cuellar despite the pardon.
The Pardon’s Effect on the Campaign
The pardon has put Republicans campaigning to flip District 28 in a difficult position. Álvaro Corral, an assistant political science professor at the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, said that Tijerina likely won’t want to publicly disagree with Trump’s pardon, yet Republicans may also want to keep reminding voters about the allegations against Cuellar. The pardon has also changed the dynamics of the race, with the Cook Political Report changing its rating for the race from "Toss Up" to "Lean Democrat" after the pardon.
Cuellar’s Response to the Pardon
Cuellar has expressed relief that his legal battle has come to an end and has been restored to his powerful position as the top Democratic member of the House Appropriations subcommittee on Homeland Security. He said that the pardon gives him a clean slate and allows him to move forward for South Texas. However, Republicans are still confident that they can unseat Cuellar, with Tijerina saying that he is running because South Texas is in trouble, not because of Cuellar’s legal issues.
The Redistricting Effort
The GOP-run Texas Legislature redrew District 28 to make Cuellar’s path to reelection harder, one of five Democratic-controlled seats targeted under the new map. Trump won the district by 7 percentage points in 2024, and under the new map, he would have carried it by 10. The redrawn district remains anchored in Webb County, while adding territory in Hidalgo County and dropping voters in the San Antonio area. The redistricting effort was seen as a way to strengthen the GOP’s chances of flipping the seat, but the pardon has complicated those efforts.
Conclusion
The pardon of Rep. Henry Cuellar has added a new layer of complexity to the congressional race in Texas’ 28th District. While Republicans are still confident that they can unseat Cuellar, the pardon has removed a major vulnerability and changed the dynamics of the race. The GOP will need to adjust their strategy and find new ways to attack Cuellar if they hope to flip the seat. As the campaign heats up, it will be interesting to see how the pardon plays out and whether it will ultimately help or hurt Cuellar’s chances of reelection.