Key Takeaways
- Canada is expected to have lost 5,000 jobs in December, according to a Reuters survey of economists
- The unemployment rate is predicted to rise to 6.6% from 6.5% in November
- Economists at RBC expect a steeper drop of 35,000 positions in December
- The labour market has been strong in recent months, with 181,000 jobs added from September to November
- The Bank of Canada will use the labour force figures to inform its first interest rate decision of the year at the end of January
Introduction to Labour Force Figures
The labour force figures for December are set to be released by Statistics Canada, providing insight into the state of the Canadian labour market. A Reuters survey of economists has predicted that Canada lost 5,000 jobs in December, which would drive the unemployment rate up to 6.6% from 6.5% in November. This prediction is based on the expectations of economists who have been tracking the labour market trends in recent months. The labour market has been surprisingly strong, with employers adding 181,000 jobs from September to November, exceeding expectations.
Economists’ Predictions
Economists at RBC are expecting a steeper drop in jobs, predicting a loss of 35,000 positions in December. This is a more pessimistic outlook than the overall consensus, and would result in the unemployment rate jumping to 6.8% in December. However, RBC notes that the weakness in the labour market is still largely contained to trade-exposed sectors of the economy, suggesting that the overall labour market remains relatively strong. The predictions of economists will be closely watched, as they can have a significant impact on the overall outlook for the Canadian economy.
Labour Market Trends
The labour market has been a source of strength for the Canadian economy in recent months, with the addition of 181,000 jobs from September to November. This has been a surprise to many economists, who had expected a slower pace of job growth. The strong labour market has been driven by a number of factors, including a growing economy and a low unemployment rate. However, the labour market is not immune to external factors, and the trade-exposed sectors of the economy have been experiencing weakness in recent months. This weakness is expected to continue, and may have a negative impact on the overall labour market.
Implications for the Bank of Canada
The labour force figures for December will be the last look at the state of the labour market before the Bank of Canada makes its first interest rate decision of the year at the end of January. The Bank of Canada will be closely watching the labour market trends, as they can have a significant impact on the overall economy. If the labour market is strong, the Bank of Canada may consider raising interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating. On the other hand, if the labour market is weak, the Bank of Canada may consider keeping interest rates low to stimulate economic growth. The interest rate decision will have a significant impact on the overall economy, and will be closely watched by economists and investors.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the labour force figures for December are expected to show a loss of 5,000 jobs, driving the unemployment rate up to 6.6%. Economists at RBC are predicting a steeper drop of 35,000 positions, and a jump in the unemployment rate to 6.8%. The labour market has been strong in recent months, but the trade-exposed sectors of the economy are experiencing weakness. The Bank of Canada will be closely watching the labour market trends, and will use the labour force figures to inform its first interest rate decision of the year at the end of January. The interest rate decision will have a significant impact on the overall economy, and will be closely watched by economists and investors.