Image Source: Ben Fawkes
Key Takeaways
- The Seattle Seahawks will host the San Francisco 49ers in the divisional round of the playoffs, with the Seahawks looking to advance to the NFC championship game.
- The 49ers will be without key player George Kittle, who suffered an injury in their previous game.
- Oddsmakers are favoring the Seahawks, with a current point spread of -7.
- Experts are predicting a low-scoring game, with a total points scored of under 45.
- Sam Darnold’s passing yards and Christian McCaffrey’s rushing and receiving yards are expected to be lower than their respective totals.
Introduction to the Matchup
The Seattle Seahawks, winners of the NFC West and the number one seed in the conference, will host the San Francisco 49ers on Saturday in the third meeting between the two teams this season. As Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata, notes, "I did add the 49ers to my Christmas list for next year after they eliminated the Eagles for us. Losing George Kittle is huge, as they’ve basically been a MASH unit all season." The Seahawks beat the 49ers 13-3 in Week 18 to clinch the NFC West and the conference’s top seed, while the 49ers impressed on the road, defeating the Philadelphia Eagles 23-19 as a 5.5-point underdog.
Oddsmakers’ Insights
According to Joey Feazel, head of NFL trading at Caesars Sportsbook, "Last week, we saw an unprecedented move with sharps betting Eagles from -3.5 to -6 before some buyback brought it -5.5. The thought was that the 49ers were beat up and there’d be some weather and they couldn’t compete — and that was not the case." The current point spread for the game is -7 in favor of the Seahawks, with some sharp action on the total points scored pushing it down to 45. As Gable notes, "We opened Seattle -6.5, it was quickly bet up to -7 and touched -7.5. Now we’re back down to -7. Pretty good two-way action."
Best Bets
Expert Matt Jacob recommends betting on the under 45 total points scored, citing the fact that seven of the last nine head-to-head meetings between the two teams have fallen short of 45 combined points. He notes, "Yes, the Niners’ defense has gotten picked apart at times this season — from Weeks 15-17, they surrendered 89 points to Caleb Williams, Philip Rivers and Cam Ward. But that defense came up huge against the defending Super Bowl champs last week and did it on the road." Russell, another expert, recommends betting on Sam Darnold under 236.5 passing yards, citing the Seahawks’ plan to manage Darnold’s exposure to potential turnovers and the 49ers’ defense’s ability to keep everything in front of it.
Player Props
Jacob also recommends betting on Christian McCaffrey under 107.5 rushing and receiving yards, citing the fact that McCaffrey will be facing a dominant Seattle defense without the support of George Kittle. As he notes, "Of course, McCaffrey will get plenty of opportunities to duplicate last week’s performance in Philadelphia (21 touches, 114 total yards). Not only because of his dual-threat skills, but also because 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy doesn’t have a ton of other options." Feng, another expert, recommends betting on Brock Purdy under 229.5 passing yards, citing the fact that Purdy faces an elite Seattle defense and will be without key receivers Kittle and likely WR Ricky Pearsall.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers is expected to be a low-scoring game, with the Seahawks favored to win. Experts are recommending betting on the under 45 total points scored, as well as on Sam Darnold’s passing yards and Christian McCaffrey’s rushing and receiving yards being lower than their respective totals. As Gable notes, "Seattle is our best-case scenario for futures, both Super Bowl and NFC, and 49ers aren’t bad either. The only team we have liability left on is the Rams." With the 49ers missing key players and the Seahawks looking to advance to the NFC championship game, this promises to be an exciting and closely contested matchup.
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