Key Takeaways:
- The Parti Québécois (PQ) is leading in the polls and has promised to hold a referendum on Quebec sovereignty if elected.
- The federal government is preparing for a potential referendum and discussing how to respond to the PQ’s rhetoric.
- The government wants to ensure consistent messaging and promote the benefits of the federation to Quebecers.
- The PQ’s leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, has been criticized by federal ministers, including Mélanie Joly, who accused him of wanting to give Quebec to Donald Trump.
- The Conservatives are also preparing for a potential referendum and plan to focus on decentralization and respect for Quebec’s areas of jurisdiction.
Introduction to the Quebec Referendum
The Parti Québécois’s (PQ) dominance in the polls for nearly two years has sent shockwaves all the way to the federal capital. With the party’s leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, promising to hold a referendum on Quebec sovereignty during his first term, officials in Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government have been holding discussions to determine how Ottawa should respond to the PQ’s rhetoric in Quebec City. The offices of the prime minister, his Quebec lieutenant, and Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc have been involved in these conversations, according to Liberal sources familiar with the matter.
Federal Government’s Response
The idea behind these discussions is not for the federal government to become a counterweight to the PQ, but rather to ensure that the messaging from elected officials in Ottawa is consistent. The government wants to promote the benefits of the federation to Quebecers and show that Canada works. However, the sources noted that a lot can change in a year, and Plamondon’s election in the provincial vote scheduled for October 2026 is not yet a foregone conclusion. The PQ currently holds just six seats in the National Assembly, but has been surging in the polls over the past two years.
Past Referendum Experience
The federal government is also drawing lessons from the past, particularly the 1995 referendum on Quebec sovereignty. Some criticized Jean Chrétien’s government for being caught off guard, and Ottawa does not want to make the same mistake again. The government is aware that the world has changed a lot since 1995, and a similar strategy focusing on young people could be effective. However, one thing is certain: there is no question of replaying the sponsorship scandal, which was a controversial program implemented by the federal government during the 1995 referendum.
Minister’s Comments
Industry Minister Mélanie Joly recently attacked Plamondon, saying he wants to give Quebec to Donald Trump. The comments came after Plamondon called for a "closer relationship" with the U.S. and laid out part of his vision for a sovereign Quebec. However, behind the scenes, three Liberals said they found Joly’s comments clumsy, as they elevated Plamondon to the federal stage and gave him stature. The Bloc Québécois seized the opportunity, claiming that Carney’s government was still using the same arguments against sovereignty.
Bloc Québécois Response
Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet said it’s normal for the federal Liberals to start thinking about a possible referendum, but criticized the government’s approach as using old scare tactics that are not based on truth. Blanchet also said he hopes that federalists will not be tempted to "cheat or manipulate the rules" if the separatists come to power in Quebec. The Journal de Montréal recently reported that a few months before the 1995 referendum, then Prime Minister Jean Chrétien asked his immigration minister to speed up the processing of citizenship applications, to enable new arrivals to vote and thus favour the "no" camp.
Conservative Party’s Stance
The Conservatives are also preparing for a potential referendum, with Leader Pierre Poilievre saying that he understands that many young Quebecers do not feel a strong sense of belonging to Canada. Poilievre believes that the federal government has been saying for 10 years that Canada has no identity, and that it is a post-national state. He said that we must not only "be proud of our history as a country," but also "recognize that Quebec nationalism is part of Canadian patriotism." In the event of a referendum, Poilievre would focus on decentralization and respect for Quebec’s areas of jurisdiction.
Federalist Concerns
The fear among some federalists is that there will be less appetite among anglophones to please Quebec, especially with the West, which wants its share of the pie. In 1995, a few days before the referendum, thousands of Canadians flocked to Montreal to express their love for Quebec and to encourage voters to remain part of the federation. However, if there is a referendum in the next few years, some fear that there will be a "get-out, not a love-in, from the rest of Canada." This could have significant implications for the future of Quebec and Canada as a whole.